{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a946a87a-206a-4ad8-a41f-f595fba976e4",
    "symbol": "TKC",
    "name": "Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -65.868,
    "architecture_energy": 69.981,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.513,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.6,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.29,
        "rotation_up": 11.97,
        "upward_expansion": 15.89,
        "deceleration": 37.65,
        "rotation_down": 73.84,
        "downward_expansion": 93.89
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.525333,
        5.667636,
        5.840048,
        5.974237
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 5.5,
    "trend_reference": 6.155,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.106418,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.846038,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059192,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -17.994162,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.161585,
    "excess_performance": -0.28721,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106418,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005933,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059192,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.228513,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.179942,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.167961,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.161585,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.413399,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7983331,
      "relative_activity": 0.922047,
      "balance": 0.413399,
      "dry_up": 1.501133,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.063057,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.292044,
      "from_high_reference": -0.233983,
      "from_low_reference": 0.047518
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.155,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.846038,
      "structural_low": 5.29,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.011365,
        "positive_rate": 0.619048,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004638,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.366947,
        "worst_return": -0.145933,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.012238,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000868,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.110831,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.050073,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.089903,
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        "best_return": 1.029454,
        "worst_return": -0.280556,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.018373,
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        "best_return": 1.200171,
        "worst_return": -0.405683,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "relative_strength": -12.273382,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -60.765822,
        "energy": 45.749146,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.56,
        "volume": 11922595,
        "typical_volume": 7597073.1,
        "trend": 6.165667,
        "fair_value": 5.831904,
        "relative_strength": -13.974829,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.851021,
        "energy": 62.146597,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.38,
        "volume": 24883341,
        "typical_volume": 8511286.7,
        "trend": 6.158667,
        "fair_value": 5.839466,
        "relative_strength": -17.349894,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.404976,
        "energy": 71.917737,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.574667,
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          5.889,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.5,
        "volume": 7983331,
        "typical_volume": 8658266.0,
        "trend": 6.155,
        "fair_value": 5.846038,
        "relative_strength": -17.994162,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.868113,
        "energy": 69.980548,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.525333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}