{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9481f56-0dc8-440f-96e4-eb937382cc3c", "symbol": "MAGLE", "name": "Magle Chemoswed Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.188, "architecture_energy": 72.322, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 62.08, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.704667, 0.900545, 1.902905, 3.100129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.48, "trend_reference": 5.267333, "distance_from_trend": -0.908872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.546748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.980445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -96.326688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.958974, "excess_performance": -1.020469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.908872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.510198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.980445, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.963267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.958974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.08204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102668, "relative_activity": 0.930202, "balance": 0.08204, "dry_up": 2.388319, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.044071, "annualized_volatility": 1.764071, "from_high_reference": -0.979661, "from_low_reference": 0.116279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.267333, "fair_value_reference": 24.546748, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.015823, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.254545, "worst_return": -0.763033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.074884, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084441, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.330709, "worst_return": -0.566667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.191861, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.114275, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.264151, "worst_return": -0.805747, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103226, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -70.168301, "energy": 89.497391, "activity_lines": [ 1.004, 1.548909, 2.694381, 4.201333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.04, "volume": 101825, "typical_volume": 80753.85, "trend": 6.371, "fair_value": 24.980145, "relative_strength": -92.340005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.606402, "energy": 68.888651, "activity_lines": [ 1.016, 1.337818, 2.432524, 3.822645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.51, "volume": 500050, "typical_volume": 105588.5, "trend": 5.818, "fair_value": 24.76162, "relative_strength": -96.159597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.044101, "energy": 73.734223, "activity_lines": [ 0.848667, 1.088182, 2.152381, 3.444516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.48, "volume": 102668, "typical_volume": 110371.75, "trend": 5.267333, "fair_value": 24.546748, "relative_strength": -96.326688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.188058, "energy": 72.322229, "activity_lines": [ 0.704667, 0.900545, 1.902905, 3.100129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }