{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a959e74f-b241-41b2-88d0-194f90e6fa02", "symbol": "000061", "name": "Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.549, "architecture_energy": 52.177, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.999, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.61, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 21.75, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 42.26, "downward_expansion": 69.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.744, 5.706826, 6.048866, 6.582086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.79, "trend_reference": 7.41196, "distance_from_trend": -0.21883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.774617, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.204094, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.402477, "excess_performance": -0.409877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.21883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145339, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.402477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.141812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108753558, "relative_activity": 1.540852, "balance": 0.141812, "dry_up": 1.458949, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073297, "annualized_volatility": 0.305647, "from_high_reference": -0.466851, "from_low_reference": 0.094518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.41196, "fair_value_reference": 6.774617, "structural_low": 5.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007812, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.027871, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.168561, "worst_return": -0.117391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030298, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011796, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.248555, "worst_return": -0.244953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031845, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.267823, "worst_return": -0.146225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.618327, "energy": 66.457054, "activity_lines": [ 5.581333, 5.696431, 6.198997, 6.81036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.93, "volume": 94134673, "typical_volume": 68184310.15, "trend": 7.56196, "fair_value": 6.77923, "relative_strength": -25.131045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.926026, "energy": 61.219516, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.709553, 6.122765, 6.696406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.79, "volume": 108753558, "typical_volume": 70580132.55, "trend": 7.41196, "fair_value": 6.774617, "relative_strength": -30.204094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.549372, "energy": 52.177133, "activity_lines": [ 5.744, 5.706826, 6.048866, 6.582086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }