{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a95e9981-4a42-473e-abce-588b4d8d0881", "symbol": "6823", "name": "Greenfiltec Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.372, "architecture_energy": 42.575, "architecture_maturity": 13.346, "architecture_confidence": 60.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.89, "rotation_up": 23.48, "upward_expansion": 16.26, "deceleration": 46.56, "rotation_down": 57.29, "downward_expansion": 57.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.720001, 65.072728, 69.218095, 69.570968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 62.799999, "trend_reference": 69.15, "distance_from_trend": -0.091829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.417856, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.547395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017828, "excess_performance": -0.423544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.737826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 578535, "relative_activity": 0.373458, "balance": 0.737826, "dry_up": 0.342481, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116977, "annualized_volatility": 0.613357, "from_high_reference": -0.446696, "from_low_reference": 0.203065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.15, "fair_value_reference": 64.417856, "structural_low": 57.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048354, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.032825, "worst_return": -0.057458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.160929, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.161698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183144, "worst_return": -0.194805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.227473, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.256758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076479, "worst_return": -0.378466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.274713, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118314, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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439534, "typical_volume": 1808552.6, "trend": 70.67, "fair_value": 64.620289, "relative_strength": -33.727768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.32836, "energy": 32.189762, "activity_lines": [ 65.213334, 67.363636, 71.455238, 70.752473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.5, "volume": 688021, "typical_volume": 1654862.7, "trend": 69.886667, "fair_value": 64.523626, "relative_strength": -32.645415, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.096478, "energy": 42.378525, "activity_lines": [ 64.213334, 66.254545, 70.659047, 70.289892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.400002, "volume": 416100, "typical_volume": 1622517.7, "trend": 69.456667, "fair_value": 64.492856, "relative_strength": -32.032326, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.566497, "energy": 41.95798, "activity_lines": [ 64.213334, 65.83091, 70.07, 70.00043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 62.799999, "volume": 578535, "typical_volume": 1549129.65, "trend": 69.15, "fair_value": 64.417856, "relative_strength": -36.547395, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.372066, "energy": 42.575342, "activity_lines": [ 63.720001, 65.072728, 69.218095, 69.570968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }