{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a96116a7-bc15-497b-9c0f-12dafdf134da",
    "symbol": "ACEL",
    "name": "Accel Entertainment Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 84.48,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 21.716,
    "architecture_energy": 18.778,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.488,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.707,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.11,
        "rotation_up": 18.26,
        "upward_expansion": 50.91,
        "deceleration": 93.62,
        "rotation_down": 38.68,
        "downward_expansion": 21.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.118,
        12.372,
        12.294238,
        12.090624
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 12.16,
    "trend_reference": 11.833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.027635,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 11.107436,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094762,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.173101,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.078014,
    "excess_performance": -0.047611,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027635,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05008,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094762,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032917,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051731,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035004,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078014,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.02819,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1787265,
      "relative_activity": 1.19562,
      "balance": 1.02819,
      "dry_up": 0.94353,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.06603,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.245091,
      "from_high_reference": -0.131429,
      "from_low_reference": 0.273298
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.833,
      "fair_value_reference": 11.107436,
      "structural_low": 10.655,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.02683,
        "positive_rate": 0.722222,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.722222,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013009,
        "regime_survival": 0.388889,
        "best_return": 0.089337,
        "worst_return": -0.205433,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.010233,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010413,
        "regime_survival": 0.1,
        "best_return": 0.126471,
        "worst_return": -0.166384,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.003707,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.109242,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.238205,
        "worst_return": -0.191002,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.147059,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034109,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.304948,
        "worst_return": -0.238819,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.08737,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.035714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051306,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.154177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.073589,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.077558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.123924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008755,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.149312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.136657,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.032985,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "fair_value": 10.936474,
        "relative_strength": -0.609362,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 10.966795,
        "relative_strength": -8.591387,
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        "energy": 43.458125,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1815221.3,
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        "energy": 25.116043,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 11.89,
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        "typical_volume": 1765473.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 1752103.25,
        "trend": 11.331333,
        "fair_value": 11.010321,
        "relative_strength": -3.740835,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 23.358447,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 1761249.9,
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        "fair_value": 11.066987,
        "relative_strength": 7.667894,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.764196,
        "energy": 78.631018,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 1741026.75,
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        "relative_strength": 1.467768,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1744332.4,
        "trend": 11.746,
        "fair_value": 11.0925,
        "relative_strength": -1.662245,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.512188,
        "energy": 55.117739,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 12.15,
        "volume": 1430335,
        "typical_volume": 1706877.15,
        "trend": 11.779,
        "fair_value": 11.0975,
        "relative_strength": -2.54983,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.271109,
        "energy": 29.207502,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.574667,
          12.578909,
          12.277571,
          12.037118
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.03,
        "volume": 1354773,
        "typical_volume": 1578603.55,
        "trend": 11.79,
        "fair_value": 11.1025,
        "relative_strength": -2.502849,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.095658,
        "energy": 18.743511,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.339333,
          12.51,
          12.281524,
          12.053312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.02,
        "volume": 1069348,
        "typical_volume": 1504892.5,
        "trend": 11.811667,
        "fair_value": 11.102564,
        "relative_strength": -3.171272,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.552092,
        "energy": 19.260462,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.162667,
          12.431636,
          12.282952,
          12.068151
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.16,
        "volume": 1787265,
        "typical_volume": 1494843.95,
        "trend": 11.833,
        "fair_value": 11.107436,
        "relative_strength": -5.173101,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.71638,
        "energy": 18.778229,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.118,
          12.372,
          12.294238,
          12.090624
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}