{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a968650d-86b4-4d1e-8531-e406c3ba8f11", "symbol": "FDJ", "name": "FDJ United", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.306, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.009, "architecture_energy": 14.781, "architecture_maturity": 24.994, "architecture_confidence": 62.491, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.93, "rotation_up": 32.33, "upward_expansion": 12.98, "deceleration": 49.0, "rotation_down": 38.85, "downward_expansion": 45.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.405334, 22.45, 22.641125, 22.71828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.290001, "trend_reference": 22.570451, "distance_from_trend": -0.012426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.100162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177496, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.777928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080838, "excess_performance": -0.093408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015249, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036546, "annualized_volatility": 0.25345, "from_high_reference": -0.161007, "from_low_reference": 0.094471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.570451, "fair_value_reference": 27.100162, "structural_low": 20.690001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026056, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007406, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.037037, "worst_return": -0.104005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.105875, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.12777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180551, "worst_return": -0.16568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.140394, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.109684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156086, "worst_return": -0.276663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.153401, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.219637, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.044335, "worst_return": -0.225886, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041646, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030168, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"up", "direction": -12.929461, "energy": 22.221524, "activity_lines": [ 22.346, 22.601854, 22.88077, 22.683936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 42.5, "trend": 22.3732, "fair_value": 27.282816, "relative_strength": -24.827987, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.2756, "energy": 28.117584, "activity_lines": [ 22.264667, 22.525818, 22.820016, 22.681676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.436258, "fair_value": 27.24289, "relative_strength": -20.557604, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.28121, "energy": 18.728194, "activity_lines": [ 22.454667, 22.584909, 22.820556, 22.72276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.495362, "fair_value": 27.206115, "relative_strength": -17.334739, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.476037, "energy": 17.534231, "activity_lines": [ 22.696667, 22.687818, 22.841943, 22.774614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.527854, "fair_value": 27.172726, "relative_strength": -20.344309, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.435047, "energy": 12.043513, "activity_lines": [ 22.689333, 22.635636, 22.790822, 22.772333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.940001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.539956, "fair_value": 27.134641, "relative_strength": -21.437452, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.397657, "energy": 11.00507, "activity_lines": [ 22.505333, 22.500364, 22.695147, 22.734407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.290001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.570451, "fair_value": 27.100162, "relative_strength": -21.777928, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.008637, "energy": 14.780912, "activity_lines": [ 22.405334, 22.45, 22.641125, 22.71828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }