{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9745c23-f9ee-4ca9-a803-f6723f5e043e", "symbol": "TEXMOPIPES", "name": "Texmo Pipes and Products Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.286, "architecture_energy": 40.403, "architecture_maturity": 29.79, "architecture_confidence": 82.865, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.17, "rotation_up": 9.99, "upward_expansion": 14.22, "deceleration": 46.36, "rotation_down": 61.35, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.258667, 43.772182, 44.295048, 44.229075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.509998, "trend_reference": 44.505667, "distance_from_trend": -0.022372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.5575, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.213707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061475, "excess_performance": -0.017766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04267, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061475, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107754, "relative_activity": 0.680776, "balance": 0.623819, "dry_up": 0.486811, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06057, "annualized_volatility": 0.382528, "from_high_reference": -0.298226, "from_low_reference": 0.318485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.505667, "fair_value_reference": 63.5575, "structural_low": 33.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.023902, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.028547, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.300437, "worst_return": -0.143155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.088131, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.100444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.221015, "worst_return": -0.13506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.100975, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.194442, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.32971, "worst_return": -0.340567, "sufficient": 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4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.136242, "energy": 8.641024, "activity_lines": [ 44.866667, 44.749273, 44.626048, 44.694108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.060001, "volume": 71586, "typical_volume": 173195.5, "trend": 45.025, "fair_value": 63.829744, "relative_strength": -10.938777, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.702085, "energy": 22.101528, "activity_lines": [ 44.231334, 44.404364, 44.528286, 44.556731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.040001, "volume": 55274, "typical_volume": 165968.8, "trend": 44.846333, "fair_value": 63.738654, "relative_strength": -8.259869, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.090636, "energy": 32.678849, "activity_lines": [ 43.679334, 44.128728, 44.438524, 44.428667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.880001, "volume": 73598, "typical_volume": 159906.9, "trend": 44.637333, "fair_value": 63.644936, "relative_strength": -10.359429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.83742, "energy": 40.08369, "activity_lines": [ 43.254001, 43.868728, 44.33662, 44.301807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.509998, "volume": 107754, "typical_volume": 158281.1, "trend": 44.505667, "fair_value": 63.5575, "relative_strength": -9.213707, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.286111, "energy": 40.402911, "activity_lines": [ 43.258667, 43.772182, 44.295048, 44.229075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }