{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9767e07-b07b-4e60-933f-d0f2c28102d6", "symbol": "PMT", "name": "PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.166, "architecture_energy": 43.057, "architecture_maturity": 41.501, "architecture_confidence": 95.158, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 5.77, "deceleration": 52.2, "rotation_down": 49.24, "downward_expansion": 76.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.462125, 9.528538, 9.798906, 10.088982 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.65, "trend_reference": 10.530847, "distance_from_trend": -0.083644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.452493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.054556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140285, "excess_performance": -0.26591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076775, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639781, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5470213, "relative_activity": 0.869442, "balance": 0.639781, "dry_up": 1.172493, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061365, "annualized_volatility": 0.279625, "from_high_reference": -0.239267, "from_low_reference": 0.130528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.530847, "fair_value_reference": 10.452493, "structural_low": 8.535837, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.049916, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022857, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.230716, "worst_return": -0.130489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059494, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.054242, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.23822, "worst_return": -0.07788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109111, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.086783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243018, "worst_return": -0.079664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.467648, "energy": 44.674074, "activity_lines": [ 9.624812, 9.633727, 10.032436, 10.332886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.191714, "volume": 7515689, "typical_volume": 6205156.2, "trend": 10.682654, "fair_value": 10.440943, "relative_strength": -21.06875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.272943, "energy": 48.360769, "activity_lines": [ 9.45578, 9.546142, 9.924985, 10.231712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.43, "volume": 8839487, "typical_volume": 6374833.1, "trend": 10.609667, "fair_value": 10.446643, "relative_strength": -19.517915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.539731, "energy": 43.667667, "activity_lines": [ 9.410722, 9.512364, 9.848465, 10.150896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.65, "volume": 5470213, "typical_volume": 6291638.3, "trend": 10.530847, "fair_value": 10.452493, "relative_strength": -20.054556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.16569, "energy": 43.057356, "activity_lines": [ 9.462125, 9.528538, 9.798906, 10.088982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }