{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a97eee0e-eb4e-43d3-a709-5269d5c47a1d", "symbol": "300011", "name": "Beijing Dinghan Technology Group Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.798, "architecture_energy": 60.08, "architecture_maturity": 79.797, "architecture_confidence": 93.655, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 11.08, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 51.9, "downward_expansion": 82.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.751333, 5.832727, 6.196476, 6.670323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.92, "trend_reference": 7.339333, "distance_from_trend": -0.193387, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.183654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.16415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278049, "excess_performance": -0.285449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193387, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175907, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278049, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.236269, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21695100, "relative_activity": 0.718036, "balance": 0.236269, "dry_up": 0.805234, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076403, "annualized_volatility": 0.312889, "from_high_reference": -0.400203, "from_low_reference": 0.106542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.339333, "fair_value_reference": 7.183654, "structural_low": 5.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.010453, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.00756, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.14044, "worst_return": -0.191395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048209, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004379, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.18315, "worst_return": -0.213315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235182, "worst_return": -0.072419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038513, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.195652, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 7.07, "volume": 25093500, "typical_volume": 69269553.1, "trend": 6.551333, "fair_value": 6.483077, "relative_strength": 16.176011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.513191, "energy": 69.333957, "activity_lines": [ 5.872667, 6.029455, 6.515762, 7.01671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.48, "volume": 25284034, "typical_volume": 37815822.1, "trend": 7.518, "fair_value": 7.201923, "relative_strength": -30.348528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.50406, "energy": 69.484774, "activity_lines": [ 5.722667, 5.893273, 6.368048, 6.879097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.79, "volume": 22934086, "typical_volume": 32811517.95, "trend": 7.428, "fair_value": 7.190705, "relative_strength": -24.643727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.395517, "energy": 64.560218, "activity_lines": [ 5.708, 5.841091, 6.268333, 6.767613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.92, "volume": 21695100, "typical_volume": 30214521.95, "trend": 7.339333, "fair_value": 7.183654, "relative_strength": -26.16415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.798344, "energy": 60.079967, "activity_lines": [ 5.751333, 5.832727, 6.196476, 6.670323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }