{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a981ba8e-be0e-40bd-82ba-dd98c84a1f03", "symbol": "300304", "name": "Jiangsu Yunyi Electric Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.466, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.363, "architecture_energy": 45.541, "architecture_maturity": 24.026, "architecture_confidence": 73.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.91, "rotation_up": 16.02, "upward_expansion": 12.44, "deceleration": 58.95, "rotation_down": 68.45, "downward_expansion": 49.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.146, 13.042, 13.582912, 13.588126 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 13.497961, "distance_from_trend": -0.148019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.886789, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.874222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097532, "excess_performance": -0.104932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07574, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.697975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113569723, "relative_activity": 1.182184, "balance": 0.697975, "dry_up": 1.203237, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179935, "annualized_volatility": 0.702601, "from_high_reference": -0.428997, "from_low_reference": 0.233214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.497961, "fair_value_reference": 8.886789, "structural_low": 9.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02323, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.001515, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.274306, "worst_return": -0.041305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.314314, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.136416, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415151, "worst_return": -0.080435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.257298, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.140291, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.631012, "worst_return": 0.032609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.558179, 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"2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.242153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.163976, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 97712952.25, "trend": 13.537779, "fair_value": 8.819205, "relative_strength": -18.063563, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.146868, "energy": 34.083036, "activity_lines": [ 12.822667, 14.365273, 14.111434, 13.919673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.4, "volume": 105087432, "typical_volume": 95307017.6, "trend": 13.501197, "fair_value": 8.847066, "relative_strength": -18.007308, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.089175, "energy": 44.897993, "activity_lines": [ 11.491333, 13.571637, 13.78632, 13.717236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 113569723, "typical_volume": 96067759.2, "trend": 13.497961, "fair_value": 8.886789, "relative_strength": -13.874222, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.363425, "energy": 45.541443, "activity_lines": [ 11.146, 13.042, 13.582912, 13.588126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }