{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a982908f-95aa-4aa1-9c24-b7e4526bc137", "symbol": "002486", "name": "Shanghai Challenge Textile Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.988, "architecture_energy": 47.152, "architecture_maturity": 70.057, "architecture_confidence": 84.98, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 60.48, "rotation_down": 46.81, "downward_expansion": 78.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.264667, 2.271045, 2.401314, 2.539016 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.35, "trend_reference": 2.723855, "distance_from_trend": -0.137252, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.513434, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.469759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241935, "excess_performance": -0.249335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137252, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090514, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188346, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.845932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110920530, "relative_activity": 0.997121, "balance": 0.845932, "dry_up": 1.244886, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086193, "annualized_volatility": 0.32654, "from_high_reference": -0.300595, "from_low_reference": 0.180905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.723855, "fair_value_reference": 2.513434, "structural_low": 1.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003718, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023697, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.195804, "worst_return": -0.240838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010345, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.059852, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.612903, "worst_return": -0.2723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004651, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.090661, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.430693, "worst_return": -0.258621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004926, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.19802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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2.214667, 2.276623, 2.452225, 2.597578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.27, "volume": 129346400, "typical_volume": 112353880.6, "trend": 2.749189, "fair_value": 2.517729, "relative_strength": -18.642262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.344353, "energy": 53.628791, "activity_lines": [ 2.228667, 2.263319, 2.42096, 2.564771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.35, "volume": 110920530, "typical_volume": 111240777.1, "trend": 2.723855, "fair_value": 2.513434, "relative_strength": -19.469759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.988164, "energy": 47.152355, "activity_lines": [ 2.264667, 2.271045, 2.401314, 2.539016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }