{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a98a15ce-483c-4be5-aa35-07acc8ff34c7", "symbol": "CNBS", "name": "AMPLIFY SEYMOUR CANNABIS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.153, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.817, "architecture_energy": 27.456, "architecture_maturity": 13.165, "architecture_confidence": 42.301, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.39, "rotation_up": 17.86, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 54.23, "rotation_down": 58.66, "downward_expansion": 44.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.431573, 26.434944, 27.028522, 26.464913 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.6178, "trend_reference": 25.996337, "distance_from_trend": -0.014561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.480422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131023, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.706994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008178, "excess_performance": -0.117447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131023, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26568, "relative_activity": 0.534357, "balance": 0.320393, "dry_up": 0.421132, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112456, "annualized_volatility": 0.492419, "from_high_reference": -0.416982, "from_low_reference": 0.390005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.996337, "fair_value_reference": 29.480422, "structural_low": 19.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.027374, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.058458, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.609259, "worst_return": -0.292229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.147476, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.169838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540205, "worst_return": -0.424913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.233302, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.344904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.516471, "worst_return": -0.465141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.322144, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.562099, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.309738, "worst_return": -0.716523, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.401855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012683, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.364673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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27.852227, 28.286845, 27.372941, 26.691131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.2215, "volume": 11113, "typical_volume": 52867.95, "trend": 26.363827, "fair_value": 29.609249, "relative_strength": -9.0092, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.347317, "energy": 16.258173, "activity_lines": [ 27.18414, 27.917536, 27.374758, 26.673264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.9602, "volume": 11594, "typical_volume": 50890.65, "trend": 26.233167, "fair_value": 29.564692, "relative_strength": -13.027477, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.457102, "energy": 15.105293, "activity_lines": [ 26.29352, 27.371622, 27.244669, 26.582707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.8873, "volume": 34479, "typical_volume": 50759.25, "trend": 26.097743, "fair_value": 29.517886, "relative_strength": -14.337, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.428984, "energy": 23.53579, "activity_lines": [ 25.649873, 26.826604, 27.105112, 26.495877 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.6178, "volume": 26568, "typical_volume": 49719.6, "trend": 25.996337, "fair_value": 29.480422, "relative_strength": -14.706994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.817052, "energy": 27.455643, "activity_lines": [ 25.431573, 26.434944, 27.028522, 26.464913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }