{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a994c803-17a7-4524-8c46-09124020e9cb", "symbol": "NABL", "name": "N-Able Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.397, "architecture_energy": 30.46, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.97, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.32, "rotation_up": 62.08, "upward_expansion": 36.14, "deceleration": 40.69, "rotation_down": 14.31, "downward_expansion": 20.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.645333, 4.318545, 4.17819, 4.321677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.99, "trend_reference": 4.643, "distance_from_trend": 0.074736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.559103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477984, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.154504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110517, "excess_performance": -0.236142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198746, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142426, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7072195, "relative_activity": 0.852243, "balance": 1.907365, "dry_up": 1.02741, "accumulation_observations": 8, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140466, "annualized_volatility": 0.870049, "from_high_reference": -0.428735, "from_low_reference": 0.708904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.643, "fair_value_reference": 9.559103, "structural_low": 2.92, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007613, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02025, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.558824, "worst_return": -0.293436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.240964, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.196322, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.255118, "worst_return": -0.336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.169736, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234172, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.015674, "worst_return": -0.496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 8695331, "typical_volume": 8192187.9, "trend": 4.807667, "fair_value": 9.671795, "relative_strength": -38.409316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.027261, "energy": 23.235758, "activity_lines": [ 4.262, 3.965818, 4.070095, 4.312516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.68, "volume": 8354073, "typical_volume": 8333445.9, "trend": 4.720333, "fair_value": 9.614038, "relative_strength": -29.154632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.376005, "energy": 16.29933, "activity_lines": [ 4.44, 4.123273, 4.109048, 4.30428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.99, "volume": 7072195, "typical_volume": 8298333.75, "trend": 4.643, "fair_value": 9.559103, "relative_strength": -26.154504, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.396738, "energy": 30.459642, "activity_lines": [ 4.645333, 4.318545, 4.17819, 4.321677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }