{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9952543-7079-49c8-bf38-ab7559750ddc", "symbol": "AVA", "name": "Avista Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 91.445, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.211, "architecture_energy": 17.476, "architecture_maturity": 8.852, "architecture_confidence": 61.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.67, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 27.65, "deceleration": 52.65, "rotation_down": 49.35, "downward_expansion": 31.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.473333, 40.952545, 41.066945, 40.87754 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.73, "trend_reference": 40.629294, "distance_from_trend": -0.046747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.254461, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.772372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04406, "excess_performance": -0.169685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046747, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023417, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4391138, "relative_activity": 1.374378, "balance": 1.030494, "dry_up": 0.959883, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046058, "annualized_volatility": 0.201043, "from_high_reference": -0.101392, "from_low_reference": 0.130862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.629294, "fair_value_reference": 35.254461, "structural_low": 37.711121, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.038163, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017307, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.094071, "worst_return": -0.110868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07118, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046932, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.12089, "worst_return": 0.032903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070607, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.043319, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.196107, "worst_return": -0.085859, 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35.046079, "relative_strength": -2.579286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.598553, "energy": 23.470374, "activity_lines": [ 41.490667, 41.477153, 41.088203, 40.791093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.8, "volume": 2465938, "typical_volume": 3243641.0, "trend": 40.367426, "fair_value": 35.096031, "relative_strength": -1.257555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.187091, "energy": 29.412069, "activity_lines": [ 41.606667, 41.570171, 41.196182, 40.894279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.05, "volume": 2256495, "typical_volume": 3165418.05, "trend": 40.516867, "fair_value": 35.151, "relative_strength": -0.105846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.638613, "energy": 33.107244, "activity_lines": [ 41.848, 41.682, 41.320051, 41.002833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.45, "volume": 3153744, "typical_volume": 3181240.05, "trend": 40.605164, "fair_value": 35.206288, "relative_strength": -4.821827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.401457, "energy": 16.349387, "activity_lines": [ 41.403333, 41.464364, 41.277913, 40.998519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.73, "volume": 4391138, "typical_volume": 3195001.05, "trend": 40.629294, "fair_value": 35.254461, "relative_strength": -11.772372, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.210977, "energy": 17.476197, "activity_lines": [ 40.473333, 40.952545, 41.066945, 40.87754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }