{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a99abe4d-5f8d-470c-ad9c-8b82530d2a29", "symbol": "OGC", "name": "Ocean Glass Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.526, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.061, "architecture_energy": 4.87, "architecture_maturity": 35.599, "architecture_confidence": 39.942, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.17, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 29.6, "deceleration": 63.55, "rotation_down": 40.13, "downward_expansion": 29.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.206667, 9.260909, 9.152619, 9.146022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.1, "trend_reference": 9.2, "distance_from_trend": -0.01087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.171216, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.437272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.794101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031915, "excess_performance": -0.22424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.437272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053852, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042323, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.027027, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 0.598802, "balance": 5.027027, "dry_up": 0.245509, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043111, "annualized_volatility": 0.217197, "from_high_reference": -0.35, "from_low_reference": 0.052023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.2, "fair_value_reference": 16.171216, "structural_low": 8.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 8e-06, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01426, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.004016, "worst_return": -0.004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.002865, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002865, "worst_return": 0.002865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.033565, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.07039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033565, "worst_return": 0.033565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"typical_volume": 5550.0, "trend": 9.288333, "fair_value": 16.754064, "relative_strength": -18.049543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.523551, "energy": 17.974336, "activity_lines": [ 8.94, 8.920909, 8.98381, 9.103978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4935.0, "trend": 9.29, "fair_value": 16.660516, "relative_strength": -17.106012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.770645, "energy": 16.107958, "activity_lines": [ 9.216667, 9.059091, 9.044524, 9.130538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.7, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 4590.0, "trend": 9.295, "fair_value": 16.564779, "relative_strength": -16.826865, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.948051, "energy": 35.467921, "activity_lines": [ 9.426667, 9.19, 9.102619, 9.156989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.6, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 4615.0, "trend": 9.286667, "fair_value": 16.468401, "relative_strength": -17.846678, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.321827, "energy": 38.984229, "activity_lines": [ 9.54, 9.287273, 9.150952, 9.176667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.1, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 4595.0, "trend": 9.258333, "fair_value": 16.368819, "relative_strength": -21.676006, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.418828, "energy": 36.069239, "activity_lines": [ 9.443333, 9.280909, 9.151667, 9.164624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4130.0, "trend": 9.23, "fair_value": 16.270799, "relative_strength": -20.009566, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.681402, "energy": 15.942537, "activity_lines": [ 9.32, 9.270909, 9.152143, 9.154409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.1, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 4175.0, "trend": 9.2, "fair_value": 16.171216, "relative_strength": -18.794101, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.060557, "energy": 4.869608, "activity_lines": [ 9.206667, 9.260909, 9.152619, 9.146022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }