{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a99b2250-f371-4228-b9a2-84cbf84a0f8e", "symbol": "BUFT", "name": "FT VEST BUFFERED ALLOCATION DEFENSIVE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.062, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.278, "architecture_energy": 65.748, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.307, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.2, "rotation_up": 63.38, "upward_expansion": 86.25, "deceleration": 55.0, "rotation_down": 25.15, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.065967, 25.994062, 25.885448, 25.675702 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.225, "trend_reference": 25.384997, "distance_from_trend": 0.033091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.81165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.177577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059836, "excess_performance": -0.065789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059836, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77402, "relative_activity": 0.710413, "balance": 1.220151, "dry_up": 1.524518, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007668, "annualized_volatility": 0.043549, "from_high_reference": -0.001329, "from_low_reference": 0.099152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.384997, "fair_value_reference": 22.81165, "structural_low": 24.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.005517, "positive_rate": 0.815789, "directional_follow_through": 0.815789, "median_excess_return": -0.012129, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.028965, "worst_return": -0.013885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017387, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": -0.044975, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.045209, "worst_return": -0.00425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044529, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062072, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.057443, "worst_return": 0.030584, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 94645.7, "trend": 25.195053, "fair_value": 22.657276, "relative_strength": -5.51463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.47682, "energy": 60.032426, "activity_lines": [ 25.905613, 25.881413, 25.697675, 25.476276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.935, "volume": 295656, "typical_volume": 103618.5, "trend": 25.241387, "fair_value": 22.695129, "relative_strength": -3.996579, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.709138, "energy": 56.677055, "activity_lines": [ 25.918033, 25.896345, 25.743396, 25.524014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.9203, "volume": 158012, "typical_volume": 108164.6, "trend": 25.285313, "fair_value": 22.732249, "relative_strength": -3.348255, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.958046, "energy": 53.630908, "activity_lines": [ 25.922793, 25.904969, 25.782218, 25.567815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.0659, "volume": 133337, "typical_volume": 109544.45, "trend": 25.333337, "fair_value": 22.771423, "relative_strength": -3.672984, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.108748, "energy": 57.597979, "activity_lines": [ 25.97706, 25.937242, 25.829247, 25.618175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.225, "volume": 77402, "typical_volume": 108953.6, "trend": 25.384997, "fair_value": 22.81165, "relative_strength": -6.177577, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.278067, "energy": 65.748426, "activity_lines": [ 26.065967, 25.994062, 25.885448, 25.675702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }