{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a99c7ead-b76c-4e55-a9ec-ed39d8fa9ff8", "symbol": "SPEL", "name": "Fonci\u00e8re Volta", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.754, "architecture_energy": 47.739, "architecture_maturity": 26.265, "architecture_confidence": 77.503, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.84, "rotation_up": 24.7, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 49.94, "rotation_down": 38.89, "downward_expansion": 66.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.26, 8.242727, 8.390952, 8.459785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.3, "trend_reference": 8.573333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.261859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.591596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023529, "excess_performance": -0.076841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031882, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.642857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132, "relative_activity": 0.578694, "balance": 20.642857, "dry_up": 0.232354, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018999, "annualized_volatility": 0.352817, "from_high_reference": -0.15736, "from_low_reference": 0.0375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.573333, "fair_value_reference": 8.261859, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.003448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.009038, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.112903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020064, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": -0.034091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088235, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.002301, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.151079, "worst_return": -0.10625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005051, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085106, "active": 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-13.4817, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.446646, "energy": 55.663498, "activity_lines": [ 8.376667, 8.549091, 8.578333, 8.624409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 282.5, "trend": 8.693333, "fair_value": 8.258974, "relative_strength": -14.433335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.104668, "energy": 68.342715, "activity_lines": [ 8.23, 8.464545, 8.530714, 8.583548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.2, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 277.75, "trend": 8.656667, "fair_value": 8.264744, "relative_strength": -11.30687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.279596, "energy": 73.466558, "activity_lines": [ 8.176667, 8.398182, 8.494286, 8.55172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 259.7, "trend": 8.616667, "fair_value": 8.266026, "relative_strength": -10.868882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.310508, "energy": 75.898297, "activity_lines": [ 8.16, 8.33, 8.461905, 8.522258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 232.15, "trend": 8.575, "fair_value": 8.264423, "relative_strength": -10.783237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.010917, "energy": 77.283695, "activity_lines": [ 8.18, 8.276364, 8.431429, 8.495376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.3, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 233.6, "trend": 8.576667, "fair_value": 8.263141, "relative_strength": -10.813406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.439168, "energy": 45.747359, "activity_lines": [ 8.226667, 8.255455, 8.409762, 8.477634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 228.1, "trend": 8.573333, "fair_value": 8.261859, "relative_strength": -12.591596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.754337, "energy": 47.738753, "activity_lines": [ 8.26, 8.242727, 8.390952, 8.459785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }