{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a99d0986-491e-4b2f-b065-4e8a8307c93f", "symbol": "UTI", "name": "Universal Technical Institute Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.147, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.885, "architecture_energy": 28.625, "architecture_maturity": 47.131, "architecture_confidence": 70.718, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.0, "rotation_up": 19.8, "upward_expansion": 23.76, "deceleration": 67.11, "rotation_down": 59.07, "downward_expansion": 32.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.293333, 39.433818, 39.599429, 38.571204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.95, "trend_reference": 36.434667, "distance_from_trend": -0.205427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.877628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.803071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134404, "excess_performance": 0.00878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205427, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11486646, "relative_activity": 2.261654, "balance": 0.861023, "dry_up": 1.286554, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.240287, "annualized_volatility": 0.754028, "from_high_reference": -0.436112, "from_low_reference": 0.359793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.434667, "fair_value_reference": 23.877628, "structural_low": 25.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.059968, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.022913, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.226415, "worst_return": -0.225437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.13147, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.089842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252294, "worst_return": -0.205882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.228998, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.197464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.894049, "worst_return": 0.028274, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.371239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213151, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.94, "volume": 435135, "typical_volume": 464961.4, "trend": 7.037, "fair_value": 6.932115, "relative_strength": 6.790992, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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35.554667, "fair_value": 23.345, "relative_strength": 14.550679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.306697, "energy": 47.086544, "activity_lines": [ 44.24, 42.912545, 40.695571, 38.687656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.78, "volume": 5287323, "typical_volume": 4601644.95, "trend": 35.904, "fair_value": 23.541538, "relative_strength": 7.947398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.399308, "energy": 31.468083, "activity_lines": [ 42.237333, 42.169273, 40.576048, 38.831226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.31, "volume": 3979282, "typical_volume": 4672257.15, "trend": 36.386333, "fair_value": 23.746218, "relative_strength": 11.079996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.226278, "energy": 16.299752, "activity_lines": [ 40.916, 41.736545, 40.588952, 39.050968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.95, "volume": 11486646, "typical_volume": 5078870.65, "trend": 36.434667, "fair_value": 23.877628, "relative_strength": -20.803071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.885106, "energy": 28.624752, "activity_lines": [ 36.293333, 39.433818, 39.599429, 38.571204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }