{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a99d4cdd-d826-456a-8a3e-8bb95737be81", "symbol": "SILC", "name": "Silicom", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.466, "architecture_energy": 17.748, "architecture_maturity": 55.107, "architecture_confidence": 94.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.24, "rotation_up": 29.32, "upward_expansion": 56.25, "deceleration": 86.59, "rotation_down": 25.39, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.414667, 42.176455, 41.5795, 37.585688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.09, "trend_reference": 31.874667, "distance_from_trend": 0.320484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.210999, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.190932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 51.384876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.05117, "excess_performance": 0.863716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.320484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.413326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.190932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.513849, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.552496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.05117, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 664759, "relative_activity": 0.931958, "balance": 1.269587, "dry_up": 1.240072, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229986, "annualized_volatility": 0.76116, "from_high_reference": -0.205099, "from_low_reference": 2.154179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.874667, "fair_value_reference": 19.210999, "structural_low": 17.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080648, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039113, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.470418, "worst_return": -0.124183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.976912, "worst_return": -0.186959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080414, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098039, "worst_return": 0.062788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036306, "active": false }, { 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37.409437, "activity_lines": [ 43.275667, 43.342182, 38.317833, 33.457136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.17, "volume": 525193, "typical_volume": 581704.4, "trend": 28.249333, "fair_value": 18.993627, "relative_strength": 68.507905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.484887, "energy": 36.661224, "activity_lines": [ 43.656667, 43.447182, 39.401024, 34.548011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.06, "volume": 1111881, "typical_volume": 629913.35, "trend": 29.268, "fair_value": 19.025614, "relative_strength": 72.103683, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.382471, "energy": 32.57559, "activity_lines": [ 43.593, 43.496545, 40.357571, 35.568054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.72, "volume": 580635, "typical_volume": 642563.15, "trend": 30.122333, "fair_value": 19.029909, "relative_strength": 55.245021, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.952525, "energy": 24.369715, "activity_lines": [ 42.242, 42.771545, 40.784786, 36.242376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.83, "volume": 1180863, "typical_volume": 683879.75, "trend": 30.976333, "fair_value": 19.112088, "relative_strength": 52.785433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.223037, "energy": 20.470758, "activity_lines": [ 41.409333, 42.218545, 41.124, 36.868677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.09, "volume": 664759, "typical_volume": 713292.8, "trend": 31.874667, "fair_value": 19.210999, "relative_strength": 51.384876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.465853, "energy": 17.747789, "activity_lines": [ 41.414667, 42.176455, 41.5795, 37.585688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }