{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9a15d0e-3bcf-44fd-8d28-8f2325e52eff", "symbol": "VIDH", "name": "Vidhance AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.224, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.34, "architecture_energy": 28.998, "architecture_maturity": 28.265, "architecture_confidence": 87.241, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.91, "rotation_up": 16.33, "upward_expansion": 2.35, "deceleration": 50.55, "rotation_down": 52.3, "downward_expansion": 75.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.709333, 6.877818, 7.496095, 7.631269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.58, "trend_reference": 7.819, "distance_from_trend": -0.15846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.344974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.437613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253968, "excess_performance": -0.315463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.414383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27848, "relative_activity": 0.321272, "balance": 3.414383, "dry_up": 0.269519, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.324877, "annualized_volatility": 1.038782, "from_high_reference": -0.605988, "from_low_reference": 0.81768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.819, "fair_value_reference": 8.344974, "structural_low": 5.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.173333, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.159768, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.051515, "worst_return": -0.316109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.220231, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.24357, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.066107, "worst_return": -0.669912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.411506, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.403159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.077089, "worst_return": -0.641593, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110276, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.203911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", 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"close": 6.96, "volume": 15681, "typical_volume": 85975.1, "trend": 7.925, "fair_value": 8.519879, "relative_strength": -3.361129, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.857224, "energy": 44.369854, "activity_lines": [ 6.933333, 7.563091, 7.817952, 7.867591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.94, "volume": 22100, "typical_volume": 85741.35, "trend": 7.893667, "fair_value": 8.460914, "relative_strength": -4.96589, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.015117, "energy": 39.672298, "activity_lines": [ 6.921333, 7.362909, 7.732857, 7.804043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.5, "volume": 27819, "typical_volume": 86029.75, "trend": 7.864333, "fair_value": 8.39462, "relative_strength": -11.939832, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.547782, "energy": 31.39782, "activity_lines": [ 6.798667, 7.104182, 7.609, 7.714129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.58, "volume": 27848, "typical_volume": 86680.5, "trend": 7.819, "fair_value": 8.344974, "relative_strength": -12.437613, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.33986, "energy": 28.998199, "activity_lines": [ 6.709333, 6.877818, 7.496095, 7.631269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }