{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9a1dea6-1446-4202-aa90-679434b7becf", "symbol": "TCH-F100", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) STOXX Europe 600", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.823, "architecture_energy": 63.12, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.989, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.4, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.396, 29.942909, 752.512667, 1294.927871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.61, "trend_reference": 1926.072667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2505.39859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.836145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98969, "excess_performance": -1.01859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.043688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.719046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98969, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64763, "relative_activity": 2.140363, "balance": 0.774363, "dry_up": 1.3045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.109466, "annualized_volatility": 6.348125, "from_high_reference": -0.990145, "from_low_reference": 0.093214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1926.072667, "fair_value_reference": 2505.39859, "structural_low": 28.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.001034, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.008379, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.153893, "worst_return": -0.989645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001568, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014487, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.145047, "worst_return": -0.114823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01357, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043657, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.134276, "worst_return": -0.052423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 2535.234872, "relative_strength": -98.942877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.637787, "energy": 67.563104, "activity_lines": [ 29.766667, 177.721273, 1055.952714, 1558.282731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.93, "volume": 38799, "typical_volume": 28636.3, "trend": 2023.452333, "fair_value": 2520.535705, "relative_strength": -98.850819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.241936, "energy": 66.944374, "activity_lines": [ 30.194667, 79.060545, 897.581095, 1423.498344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.61, "volume": 64763, "typical_volume": 30257.95, "trend": 1926.072667, "fair_value": 2505.39859, "relative_strength": -98.836145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.823248, "energy": 63.120205, "activity_lines": [ 30.396, 29.942909, 752.512667, 1294.927871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }