{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9a4275d-e883-479b-adaa-365f0565c8d7", "symbol": "STEP", "name": "StepStone Group Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.318, "architecture_energy": 68.936, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.908, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.93, "rotation_up": 29.75, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.67, "rotation_down": 62.54, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 731.6, 734.502063, 786.581146, 819.615359 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 730.0, "trend_reference": 887.46607, "distance_from_trend": -0.177433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 908.862038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.703036, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318151, "excess_performance": -0.263484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23946, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318151, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.637636, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03014, "annualized_volatility": 0.477541, "from_high_reference": -0.418583, "from_low_reference": 0.035461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 887.46607, "fair_value_reference": 908.862038, "structural_low": 705.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014949, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000871, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.145158, "worst_return": -0.183862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.147017, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.186482, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.147017, "worst_return": 0.147017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"trend": 931.19116, "fair_value": 912.927084, "relative_strength": -30.503124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.940651, "energy": 89.346531, "activity_lines": [ 738.746667, 758.234354, 817.011247, 855.983984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 730.0, "volume": 164, "typical_volume": 64.3, "trend": 917.904559, "fair_value": 911.551692, "relative_strength": -30.3829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.845905, "energy": 71.271154, "activity_lines": [ 735.333333, 746.372996, 806.344071, 843.003909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 730.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.3, "trend": 904.617959, "fair_value": 910.196829, "relative_strength": -30.319841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.312846, "energy": 70.027885, "activity_lines": [ 733.2, 738.728603, 796.200704, 830.881034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 730.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.3, "trend": 887.46607, "fair_value": 908.862038, "relative_strength": -29.703036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.318057, "energy": 68.936359, "activity_lines": [ 731.6, 734.502063, 786.581146, 819.615359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }