{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9a43a0e-ccc7-4068-9887-6f0965c228b1", "symbol": "TEVA", "name": "Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.627, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.98, "architecture_energy": 27.326, "architecture_maturity": 31.135, "architecture_confidence": 71.861, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.75, "rotation_up": 40.6, "upward_expansion": 68.87, "deceleration": 85.25, "rotation_down": 29.07, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.44, 29.303636, 29.196667, 28.724301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.6, "trend_reference": 28.293333, "distance_from_trend": 0.081527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.439551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.754632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.566039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033784, "excess_performance": -0.140463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.754632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02566, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.472087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8, "relative_activity": 0.04745, "balance": 0.472087, "dry_up": 1.826809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053796, "annualized_volatility": 0.364121, "from_high_reference": -0.019231, "from_low_reference": 1.185714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.293333, "fair_value_reference": 17.439551, "structural_low": 24.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.027582, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.004808, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.25908, "worst_return": -0.135881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.107143, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05569, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.312303, "worst_return": -0.092166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021994, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.589147, "worst_return": -0.205047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049992, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.118863, "worst_return": -0.067839, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085174, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094203, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.504478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013245, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.8, "trend": 8.058667, "fair_value": 8.287179, "relative_strength": 6.016173, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.217941, "energy": 29.597719, "activity_lines": [ 29.506667, 29.583637, 28.755714, 28.374194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.0, "volume": 1484, "typical_volume": 253.5, "trend": 27.953333, "fair_value": 16.906474, "relative_strength": 2.312734, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.34363, "energy": 21.125153, "activity_lines": [ 29.34, 29.456364, 28.840953, 28.449678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 219.65, "trend": 28.036667, "fair_value": 17.039423, "relative_strength": 1.476061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.664558, "energy": 19.169903, "activity_lines": [ 29.06, 29.241818, 28.868572, 28.478495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 361, "typical_volume": 150.65, "trend": 28.056667, "fair_value": 17.164167, "relative_strength": -4.662072, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.950913, "energy": 9.31043, "activity_lines": [ 28.446667, 28.849091, 28.780953, 28.424516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.299999, "volume": 863, "typical_volume": 168.2, "trend": 28.196667, "fair_value": 17.300577, "relative_strength": 5.381735, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.689464, "energy": 21.904048, "activity_lines": [ 28.913333, 29.056364, 28.986667, 28.569247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.6, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 168.6, "trend": 28.293333, "fair_value": 17.439551, "relative_strength": 2.566039, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.979966, "energy": 27.325797, "activity_lines": [ 29.44, 29.303636, 29.196667, 28.724301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }