{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9ae7981-908c-44e1-a4ce-b750eb7b46d1", "symbol": "ZIL2", "name": "ElringKlinger AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.475, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.147, "architecture_energy": 44.409, "architecture_maturity": 4.164, "architecture_confidence": 67.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.48, "rotation_up": 15.32, "upward_expansion": 23.64, "deceleration": 52.17, "rotation_down": 65.38, "downward_expansion": 53.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.897, 5.009091, 5.269801, 5.189588 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.995, "trend_reference": 4.984774, "distance_from_trend": 0.002052, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.663622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.706664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.209014, "excess_performance": 0.144374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002052, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.209014, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199150, "relative_activity": 1.690282, "balance": 0.874676, "dry_up": 0.804743, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075442, "annualized_volatility": 0.329573, "from_high_reference": -0.215856, "from_low_reference": 0.307708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.984774, "fair_value_reference": 4.663622, "structural_low": 3.892739, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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2.831063, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.221513, "energy": 23.326471, "activity_lines": [ 5.134, 5.403333, 5.425312, 5.199381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.88, "volume": 107808, "typical_volume": 126076.4, "trend": 4.909908, "fair_value": 4.694587, "relative_strength": 3.146959, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.744307, "energy": 28.712542, "activity_lines": [ 5.000667, 5.28, 5.390259, 5.198863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.82, "volume": 33159, "typical_volume": 119909.25, "trend": 4.931722, "fair_value": 4.679668, "relative_strength": 0.632327, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.809251, "energy": 45.9, "activity_lines": [ 4.907333, 5.158545, 5.34653, 5.193062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.84, "volume": 39144, "typical_volume": 113942.6, "trend": 4.957126, "fair_value": 4.668397, "relative_strength": -1.138158, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.497281, "energy": 52.845414, "activity_lines": [ 4.864, 5.061273, 5.301636, 5.187145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.995, "volume": 199150, "typical_volume": 117820.55, "trend": 4.984774, "fair_value": 4.663622, "relative_strength": -0.706664, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.147424, "energy": 44.40942, "activity_lines": [ 4.897, 5.009091, 5.269801, 5.189588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }