{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9b507f5-049d-46e0-ad8b-330b5c8dfcec", "symbol": "CGO", "name": "Contango Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.255, "architecture_energy": 23.308, "architecture_maturity": 85.359, "architecture_confidence": 80.004, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.53, "rotation_up": 27.57, "upward_expansion": 16.42, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 24.32, "downward_expansion": 61.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005735, 0.005266, 0.006091, 0.006824 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.007542, "distance_from_trend": -0.20449, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.014519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.586749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.687288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.301235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20449, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.586749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8842815, "relative_activity": 2.221678, "balance": 0.941305, "dry_up": 1.90751, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.239359, "annualized_volatility": 0.726782, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007542, "fair_value_reference": 0.014519, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.382353, "median_excess_return": 0.016411, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.536585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.087962, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.487273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002857, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046683, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.618182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.282051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false 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"fair_value": 0.015057, "relative_strength": -36.598215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.232264, "energy": 53.089047, "activity_lines": [ 0.004787, 0.004967, 0.006278, 0.007002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0065, "volume": 3187249, "typical_volume": 3897859.75, "trend": 0.007601, "fair_value": 0.014788, "relative_strength": -25.328125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.818333, "energy": 34.330036, "activity_lines": [ 0.005419, 0.005143, 0.006202, 0.006927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 8842815, "typical_volume": 3980242.2, "trend": 0.007542, "fair_value": 0.014519, "relative_strength": -30.687288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.255152, "energy": 23.307575, "activity_lines": [ 0.005735, 0.005266, 0.006091, 0.006824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }