{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a9bbf84d-44ba-4b80-a6ad-9b927d298a26",
    "symbol": "CLMA",
    "name": "Guinness Sustainable Energy UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 82.952,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.385,
    "architecture_energy": 29.535,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.422,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.743,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.72,
        "rotation_up": 28.22,
        "upward_expansion": 56.9,
        "deceleration": 91.13,
        "rotation_down": 28.44,
        "downward_expansion": 20.57
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.773,
    "trend_reference": 6.343067,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.06778,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.719196,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184257,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.685597,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.089958,
    "excess_performance": 0.007075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06778,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041133,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.184257,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044791,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006856,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088385,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089958,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.422693,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 217,
      "relative_activity": 0.264473,
      "balance": 0.422693,
      "dry_up": 0.697441,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023203,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.174174,
      "from_high_reference": -0.105768,
      "from_low_reference": 0.236852
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.343067,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.719196,
      "structural_low": 5.63,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.003031,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032609,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.051221,
        "worst_return": -0.049991,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.007192,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.050723,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.041247,
        "worst_return": -0.1127,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.031044,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.07154,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.126761,
        "worst_return": -0.065603,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.063322,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.060513,
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        "worst_return": -0.063322,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "relative_strength": 6.07119,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 44.455958,
        "energy": 47.435955,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.2698,
          6.097855,
          6.082433,
          6.064222
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 6.5,
        "volume": 1420,
        "typical_volume": 1178.75,
        "trend": 6.08567,
        "fair_value": 5.704427,
        "relative_strength": 8.152918,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.806496,
        "energy": 83.197331,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.3762,
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          6.12441,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 6.493,
        "volume": 433,
        "typical_volume": 1200.4,
        "trend": 6.106337,
        "fair_value": 5.705658,
        "relative_strength": 6.714197,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.662909,
        "energy": 84.88755,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.4328,
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          6.162629,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 6.457,
        "volume": 891,
        "typical_volume": 1210.35,
        "trend": 6.0691,
        "fair_value": 5.706741,
        "relative_strength": 3.576067,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.33031,
        "energy": 79.637996,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.14103
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 6.72,
        "volume": 1622,
        "typical_volume": 1239.8,
        "trend": 6.092467,
        "fair_value": 5.708709,
        "relative_strength": 7.090555,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.698517,
        "energy": 86.981065,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.551533,
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          6.183024
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 6.711,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1214.05,
        "trend": 6.119167,
        "fair_value": 5.710356,
        "relative_strength": 7.799159,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.373671,
        "energy": 88.848921,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.29909,
          6.222929
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 6.666,
        "volume": 1116,
        "typical_volume": 1208.35,
        "trend": 6.1453,
        "fair_value": 5.710735,
        "relative_strength": 4.300155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.368804,
        "energy": 86.212657,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1102.55,
        "trend": 6.186033,
        "fair_value": 5.714241,
        "relative_strength": 6.950171,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.350636,
        "energy": 94.362636,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.306189
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 6.856,
        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 1017.0,
        "trend": 6.215767,
        "fair_value": 5.716453,
        "relative_strength": 3.230895,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.599697,
        "energy": 91.080857,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.7984,
          6.691418,
          6.46049,
          6.349413
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 6.675,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1003.45,
        "trend": 6.238967,
        "fair_value": 5.717965,
        "relative_strength": -1.314827,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.144875,
        "energy": 77.902818,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.767267,
          6.704855,
          6.495381,
          6.379041
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 6.581,
        "volume": 768,
        "typical_volume": 922.15,
        "trend": 6.257767,
        "fair_value": 5.718408,
        "relative_strength": -1.460057,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.82502,
        "energy": 62.802323,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.7078,
          6.695345,
          6.519552,
          6.401108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 6.42,
        "volume": 150,
        "typical_volume": 862.6,
        "trend": 6.276733,
        "fair_value": 5.717183,
        "relative_strength": -4.570051,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.312692,
        "energy": 37.082059,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.603333,
          6.652655,
          6.527195,
          6.411574
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.564,
        "volume": 277,
        "typical_volume": 876.4,
        "trend": 6.3003,
        "fair_value": 5.716414,
        "relative_strength": -2.304639,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.487145,
        "energy": 33.013912,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.563267,
          6.6376,
          6.547552,
          6.430108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.521,
        "volume": 1645,
        "typical_volume": 809.9,
        "trend": 6.32,
        "fair_value": 5.716145,
        "relative_strength": -3.039174,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.295174,
        "energy": 30.430828,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.530533,
          6.613436,
          6.560748,
          6.444346
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.773,
        "volume": 217,
        "typical_volume": 820.5,
        "trend": 6.343067,
        "fair_value": 5.719196,
        "relative_strength": -0.685597,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.385229,
        "energy": 29.534867,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.604133,
          6.633927,
          6.594586,
          6.473572
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}