{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9c6b664-3a6f-41a5-9d78-9ab94b64649c", "symbol": "000686", "name": "Northeast Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.671, "architecture_energy": 20.861, "architecture_maturity": 39.227, "architecture_confidence": 72.317, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.4, "rotation_up": 16.86, "upward_expansion": 9.66, "deceleration": 54.79, "rotation_down": 44.71, "downward_expansion": 63.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.033333, 8.087818, 8.077747, 8.141343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.06, "trend_reference": 8.320611, "distance_from_trend": -0.031321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.478468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.355045, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095523, "excess_performance": -0.102923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80745156, "relative_activity": 0.834933, "balance": 0.367903, "dry_up": 1.140038, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055183, "annualized_volatility": 0.210939, "from_high_reference": -0.255426, "from_low_reference": 0.087719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.320611, "fair_value_reference": 7.478468, "structural_low": 7.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.012871, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.286449, "worst_return": -0.182631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021127, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.042203, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.493625, "worst_return": -0.1983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084935, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034306, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.342441, "worst_return": -0.215237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.94, "volume": 128676456, "typical_volume": 95651884.1, "trend": 8.436219, "fair_value": 7.45562, "relative_strength": -7.038566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.342403, "energy": 22.131661, "activity_lines": [ 8.184, 8.089822, 8.098131, 8.213083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.91, "volume": 131670048, "typical_volume": 96142562.1, "trend": 8.39892, "fair_value": 7.463193, "relative_strength": -7.415202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.38264, "energy": 16.40643, "activity_lines": [ 8.092667, 8.067663, 8.077691, 8.179134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.11, "volume": 99914340, "typical_volume": 97337304.3, "trend": 8.356837, "fair_value": 7.47084, "relative_strength": -3.302184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.906039, "energy": 19.325471, "activity_lines": [ 8.061333, 8.084727, 8.079291, 8.160494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.06, "volume": 80745156, "typical_volume": 96708600.7, "trend": 8.320611, "fair_value": 7.478468, "relative_strength": -8.355045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.670777, "energy": 20.860974, "activity_lines": [ 8.033333, 8.087818, 8.077747, 8.141343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }