{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9c9d89f-0532-4b2a-a0ac-0f7c3c9a73dc", "symbol": "HOV", "name": "Hovnanian Enterprises Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.826, "architecture_energy": 30.963, "architecture_maturity": 42.13, "architecture_confidence": 53.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.25, "rotation_up": 45.15, "upward_expansion": 64.11, "deceleration": 62.84, "rotation_down": 20.73, "downward_expansion": 14.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.791333, 131.97, 124.613952, 121.319226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 137.78, "trend_reference": 119.011667, "distance_from_trend": 0.157702, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.995769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.278617, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094534, "excess_performance": -0.03109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157702, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212414, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094534, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.678217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 568586, "relative_activity": 0.938155, "balance": 1.678217, "dry_up": 1.212908, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116797, "annualized_volatility": 0.494084, "from_high_reference": -0.149795, "from_low_reference": 0.505463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.011667, "fair_value_reference": 132.995769, "structural_low": 91.52, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.012106, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.005852, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.280287, "worst_return": -0.299886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.062553, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.14966, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.45303, "worst_return": -0.539398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002667, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.913765, "worst_return": -0.637049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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113.152796 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 147.55, "volume": 880174, "typical_volume": 552519.1, "trend": 113.837667, "fair_value": 131.890641, "relative_strength": 12.676517, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.820462, "energy": 73.882119, "activity_lines": [ 130.359333, 120.444909, 115.705429, 115.362129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 134.53, "volume": 564799, "typical_volume": 553235.6, "trend": 114.866667, "fair_value": 132.159167, "relative_strength": 0.583769, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.905329, "energy": 71.10651, "activity_lines": [ 133.908667, 123.884545, 117.548571, 116.697118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 127.3, "volume": 463625, "typical_volume": 563459.15, "trend": 115.545667, "fair_value": 132.275256, "relative_strength": -5.853213, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.148012, "energy": 69.19651, "activity_lines": [ 133.436667, 125.693273, 118.68219, 117.499269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 131.7, "volume": 613457, "typical_volume": 570726.4, "trend": 116.501, "fair_value": 132.480641, "relative_strength": -1.119807, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.96342, "energy": 61.27263, "activity_lines": [ 133.211333, 127.995818, 120.246095, 118.541484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.89, "volume": 588734, "typical_volume": 575366.6, "trend": 117.571667, "fair_value": 132.651795, "relative_strength": 1.218823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.368193, "energy": 39.298972, "activity_lines": [ 132.984, 130.260727, 121.989619, 119.663355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.9, "volume": 1169645, "typical_volume": 615683.6, "trend": 118.442333, "fair_value": 132.776218, "relative_strength": -6.991606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.799799, "energy": 25.252027, "activity_lines": [ 129.286, 130.023273, 122.681667, 120.071634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.78, "volume": 568586, "typical_volume": 606068.4, "trend": 119.011667, "fair_value": 132.995769, "relative_strength": 0.278617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.826421, "energy": 30.962759, "activity_lines": [ 131.791333, 131.97, 124.613952, 121.319226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }