{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9cc2184-848f-4ded-b632-b9ccb81c9304", "symbol": "STEP", "name": "Stepstone Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.737, "architecture_energy": 19.458, "architecture_maturity": 54.071, "architecture_confidence": 73.767, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.02, "rotation_up": 25.03, "upward_expansion": 13.53, "deceleration": 45.83, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 58.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.358667, 43.511136, 45.435929, 46.534223 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.41, "trend_reference": 49.734814, "distance_from_trend": -0.066851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.620532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.623336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238583, "excess_performance": -0.426037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115416, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.329566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12498106, "relative_activity": 2.033683, "balance": 1.329566, "dry_up": 1.183177, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117365, "annualized_volatility": 0.517413, "from_high_reference": -0.388968, "from_low_reference": 0.194595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.734814, "fair_value_reference": 47.620532, "structural_low": 38.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.020982, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.019764, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.243736, "worst_return": -0.194295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012867, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.314064, "worst_return": -0.14326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.334413, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.120069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.550373, "worst_return": -0.201433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 6461285.2, "trend": 52.593578, "fair_value": 47.16778, "relative_strength": -34.615582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.046315, "energy": 54.780339, "activity_lines": [ 42.1307, 44.129346, 46.44577, 48.464238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.55, "volume": 5417041, "typical_volume": 5988502.2, "trend": 51.976079, "fair_value": 47.282894, "relative_strength": -30.157646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.395669, "energy": 48.569491, "activity_lines": [ 42.484, 43.588778, 46.138438, 47.880782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.61, "volume": 6437644, "typical_volume": 5898908.15, "trend": 51.24068, "fair_value": 47.390394, "relative_strength": -29.89755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.690542, "energy": 38.956564, "activity_lines": [ 42.528667, 43.081369, 45.736069, 47.276519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.86, "volume": 4732316, "typical_volume": 5776710.75, "trend": 50.534906, "fair_value": 47.497555, "relative_strength": -27.674136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.079262, "energy": 28.123432, "activity_lines": [ 43.162667, 42.983085, 45.463503, 46.800346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.41, "volume": 12498106, "typical_volume": 6145552.5, "trend": 49.734814, "fair_value": 47.620532, "relative_strength": -26.623336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.737339, "energy": 19.457669, "activity_lines": [ 44.358667, 43.511136, 45.435929, 46.534223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }