{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9cd5b8b-c6c0-4578-9ec1-8c2564149571", "symbol": "CPNQ", "name": "CALAMOS NASDAQ-100 STRUCTURED ALT PROTECTION ETF - DECEMBER", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.308, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.991, "architecture_energy": 63.822, "architecture_maturity": 48.175, "architecture_confidence": 70.772, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.15, "rotation_up": 59.73, "upward_expansion": 85.97, "deceleration": 63.69, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 10.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.431053, 27.392165, 27.310651, 27.15731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.56, "trend_reference": 26.964783, "distance_from_trend": 0.022074, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.944116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.931884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037713, "excess_performance": -0.087912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022074, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011089, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627944, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59843, "relative_activity": 1.683355, "balance": 0.627944, "dry_up": 1.320181, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005258, "annualized_volatility": 0.026441, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.071119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.964783, "fair_value_reference": 25.944116, "structural_low": 26.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004202, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01812, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005472, "worst_return": 0.002931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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25.874343, "relative_strength": -7.06783, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.188482, "energy": 64.886704, "activity_lines": [ 27.356733, 27.33202, 27.172666, 27.023805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.3649, "volume": 79562, "typical_volume": 32972.4, "trend": 26.879373, "fair_value": 25.891879, "relative_strength": -5.558489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.541031, "energy": 61.316771, "activity_lines": [ 27.36268, 27.342204, 27.208428, 27.056968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.324, "volume": 5234, "typical_volume": 32119.85, "trend": 26.90461, "fair_value": 25.908531, "relative_strength": -4.964804, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.236936, "energy": 58.359996, "activity_lines": [ 27.35266, 27.342745, 27.236702, 27.085653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.3885, "volume": 43090, "typical_volume": 33485.75, "trend": 26.933217, "fair_value": 25.925543, "relative_strength": -5.541007, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.88249, "energy": 55.415642, "activity_lines": [ 27.36654, 27.352942, 27.267571, 27.116872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.56, "volume": 59843, "typical_volume": 35549.85, "trend": 26.964783, "fair_value": 25.944116, "relative_strength": -7.931884, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.991111, "energy": 63.822392, "activity_lines": [ 27.431053, 27.392165, 27.310651, 27.15731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }