{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9d04574-4e5a-42dc-914b-94ed699f4aaa", "symbol": "NVLG", "name": "Novolog (Pharm-Up 1966) Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.292, "architecture_energy": 40.701, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.833, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.97, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 18.36, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 43.34, "downward_expansion": 70.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.765333, 0.754436, 0.804767, 0.873004 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.822, "trend_reference": 0.975567, "distance_from_trend": -0.157413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.354701, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.393224, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.444111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.307498, "excess_performance": -0.336398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.393224, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344441, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307498, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.730033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4807286, "relative_activity": 3.047217, "balance": 2.730033, "dry_up": 1.979277, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100131, "annualized_volatility": 0.492943, "from_high_reference": -0.468429, "from_low_reference": 0.239819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.975567, "fair_value_reference": 1.354701, "structural_low": 0.663, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.022435, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.036549, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.230539, "worst_return": -0.217913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.075703, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.169321, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.186345, "worst_return": -0.354654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.167505, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.289644, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.107574, "worst_return": -0.382591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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471759, "typical_volume": 1189583.75, "trend": 1.0065, "fair_value": 1.367846, "relative_strength": -48.546911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.78727, "energy": 87.442196, "activity_lines": [ 0.697333, 0.739345, 0.817176, 0.896424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.813, "volume": 3632040, "typical_volume": 1360061.7, "trend": 0.9915, "fair_value": 1.361253, "relative_strength": -35.948206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.591467, "energy": 60.809471, "activity_lines": [ 0.732667, 0.745873, 0.809719, 0.88394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.822, "volume": 4807286, "typical_volume": 1577598.9, "trend": 0.975567, "fair_value": 1.354701, "relative_strength": -34.444111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.292472, "energy": 40.700816, "activity_lines": [ 0.765333, 0.754436, 0.804767, 0.873004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }