{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9dc8ce8-fa44-4e49-b966-ed80efc0cea1", "symbol": "CHIN", "name": "KraneShares ICBCCS S&P China 500 Index UCITS ETF USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.817, "architecture_energy": 19.097, "architecture_maturity": 20.401, "architecture_confidence": 72.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.3, "rotation_up": 22.4, "upward_expansion": 38.11, "deceleration": 82.46, "rotation_down": 40.5, "downward_expansion": 38.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.721733, 13.793636, 13.853952, 13.778065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.006, "trend_reference": 13.7034, "distance_from_trend": 0.022082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.471844, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220902, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.86896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035334, "excess_performance": -0.135558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10869, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2267, "relative_activity": 0.13208, "balance": 0.754916, "dry_up": 0.659218, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029053, "annualized_volatility": 0.155847, "from_high_reference": -0.041997, "from_low_reference": 0.197913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.7034, "fair_value_reference": 11.471844, "structural_low": 12.654, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044472, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044472, "worst_return": 0.044472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.164851, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.115697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164851, "worst_return": 0.164851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.238435, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238435, "worst_return": 0.238435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 13.615067, 13.767527, 13.828971, 13.758245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.006, "volume": 2267, "typical_volume": 17163.9, "trend": 13.7034, "fair_value": 11.471844, "relative_strength": -10.86896, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.817223, "energy": 19.097005, "activity_lines": [ 13.721733, 13.793636, 13.853952, 13.778065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }