{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9eb4340-c998-49ab-b361-d952efdb6512", "symbol": "MLNOV", "name": "Novatech Industries", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.555, "architecture_energy": 89.296, "architecture_maturity": 28.848, "architecture_confidence": 81.926, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.77, "rotation_up": 9.73, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 83.04, "downward_expansion": 99.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.046667, 15.538182, 16.662381, 17.267957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.0, "trend_reference": 17.87, "distance_from_trend": -0.160604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.488141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.160848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101796, "excess_performance": -0.155108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043703, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.111633, "dry_up": 0.228769, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042564, "annualized_volatility": 0.33903, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.020408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.87, "fair_value_reference": 12.488141, "structural_low": 14.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.027575, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.343612, "worst_return": -0.132743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.172381, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.211529, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.050633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.428571, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.491172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.282353, "worst_return": -0.196721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.479557, 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"2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.418182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035533, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085366, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.5, "volume": 445, "typical_volume": 335.2, "trend": 8.199, "fair_value": 5.999295, "relative_strength": 33.954486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.542355, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.04848, "energy": 74.046105, "activity_lines": [ 17.6, 18.089091, 18.497619, 18.552903 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.45, "trend": 18.54, "fair_value": 12.297756, "relative_strength": -14.445771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.298742, "energy": 85.511121, "activity_lines": [ 17.086666, 17.705454, 18.278571, 18.40258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 163.5, "trend": 18.45, "fair_value": 12.340064, "relative_strength": -15.549481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.492697, "energy": 92.175201, "activity_lines": [ 16.659999, 17.36909, 18.061428, 18.258064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.9, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 164.7, "trend": 18.346667, "fair_value": 12.373397, "relative_strength": -15.853738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.038159, "energy": 91.728581, "activity_lines": [ 16.266666, 17.00909, 17.820476, 18.093548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.9, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 159.15, "trend": 18.21, "fair_value": 12.391987, "relative_strength": -21.082603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.819118, "energy": 95.338099, "activity_lines": [ 15.733333, 16.523636, 17.497619, 17.871183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.0, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 147.1, "trend": 18.136667, "fair_value": 12.417628, "relative_strength": -20.873713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.80203, "energy": 93.277599, "activity_lines": [ 15.413333, 16.130909, 17.198571, 17.664086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 145.6, "trend": 18.003333, "fair_value": 12.45609, "relative_strength": -21.799027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.895548, "energy": 89.136384, "activity_lines": [ 15.186667, 15.810909, 16.92, 17.46172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 144.25, "trend": 17.87, "fair_value": 12.488141, "relative_strength": -23.160848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.554621, "energy": 89.295645, "activity_lines": [ 15.046667, 15.538182, 16.662381, 17.267957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }