{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9ec0826-ee08-4392-a12f-af3531e9eb94", "symbol": "KBA", "name": "KRANESHARES TR BOSERA MSCI CHINA A 50 CONNECT INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.47, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.666, "architecture_energy": 24.055, "architecture_maturity": 35.137, "architecture_confidence": 76.837, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.5, "rotation_up": 34.46, "upward_expansion": 61.86, "deceleration": 92.18, "rotation_down": 27.8, "downward_expansion": 13.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.427613, 33.397691, 33.387814, 32.863933 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.9797, "trend_reference": 32.18056, "distance_from_trend": 0.055908, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.947335, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.184618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107191, "excess_performance": -0.018434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055908, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118114, "relative_activity": 0.427563, "balance": 0.388635, "dry_up": 0.457176, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041305, "annualized_volatility": 0.166131, "from_high_reference": -0.041746, "from_low_reference": 0.348819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.18056, "fair_value_reference": 24.947335, "structural_low": 29.245, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.022535, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.03851, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.255668, "worst_return": -0.063251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017109, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016288, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.126888, "worst_return": -0.125695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015825, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004186, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096796, "worst_return": -0.1231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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32.45, "volume": 135013, "typical_volume": 356225.25, "trend": 31.959507, "fair_value": 24.745126, "relative_strength": -2.252212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.955409, "energy": 19.853907, "activity_lines": [ 33.048027, 33.355844, 33.121088, 32.567743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.6119, "volume": 102383, "typical_volume": 322701.0, "trend": 32.046237, "fair_value": 24.809693, "relative_strength": 1.598707, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.885134, "energy": 20.381519, "activity_lines": [ 33.133313, 33.377822, 33.230149, 32.674349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.11, "volume": 149668, "typical_volume": 302579.9, "trend": 32.104903, "fair_value": 24.87229, "relative_strength": -1.179913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.32775, "energy": 14.911779, "activity_lines": [ 33.11784, 33.307965, 33.27421, 32.742979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.9797, "volume": 118114, "typical_volume": 276249.1, "trend": 32.18056, "fair_value": 24.947335, "relative_strength": -2.184618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.666141, "energy": 24.055287, "activity_lines": [ 33.427613, 33.397691, 33.387814, 32.863933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }