{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9f52fdc-d242-4308-9959-b052fe7ae377", "symbol": "KOD", "name": "Kodal Minerals PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.344, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.67, "architecture_energy": 33.916, "architecture_maturity": 38.242, "architecture_confidence": 94.494, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.97, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 4.75, "deceleration": 47.14, "rotation_down": 45.27, "downward_expansion": 75.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002937, 0.002979, 0.003035, 0.003164 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.00297, "trend_reference": 0.00347, "distance_from_trend": -0.144092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.864317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238462, "excess_performance": -0.289697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038983, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123971611, "relative_activity": 0.939101, "balance": 0.726134, "dry_up": 0.840954, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117845, "annualized_volatility": 0.582806, "from_high_reference": -0.520968, "from_low_reference": 0.35 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00347, "fair_value_reference": 0.003937, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.059603, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.043888, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.170732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015767, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.291667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.07355, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.131144, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.164384, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.380863, "energy": 27.180572, "activity_lines": [ 0.003047, 0.003049, 0.003099, 0.003278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0029, "volume": 149781751, "typical_volume": 142973342.45, "trend": 0.003496, "fair_value": 0.003967, "relative_strength": -19.388605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.918967, "energy": 31.477932, "activity_lines": [ 0.00299, 0.00302, 0.003074, 0.003239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00285, "volume": 82464481, "typical_volume": 133117340.4, "trend": 0.003488, "fair_value": 0.003952, "relative_strength": -21.305698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.82107, "energy": 42.380083, "activity_lines": [ 0.002937, 0.002987, 0.003048, 0.003197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00297, "volume": 123971611, "typical_volume": 132011012.5, "trend": 0.00347, "fair_value": 0.003937, "relative_strength": -17.864317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.670013, "energy": 33.916097, "activity_lines": [ 0.002937, 0.002979, 0.003035, 0.003164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }