{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a9fa72eb-e361-4b54-9dc7-df4c2fa308e9", "symbol": "252400", "name": "KB KBSTAR 200 Futures Leverage Securities ETF Investment Trust - Equity-Derivatives", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.264, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.431, "architecture_energy": 41.333, "architecture_maturity": 61.213, "architecture_confidence": 51.638, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.27, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 17.75, "deceleration": 68.1, "rotation_down": 70.68, "downward_expansion": 45.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 98705.0, 125211.0, 137092.904762, 127314.666667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 84125.0, "trend_reference": 111948.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.248537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36970.226462, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.27548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.582643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.287398, "excess_performance": 0.057569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.447848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.27548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.209612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015826, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.857882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135698, "relative_activity": 1.474108, "balance": 0.803843, "dry_up": 1.740318, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.432813, "annualized_volatility": 1.071722, "from_high_reference": -0.639026, "from_low_reference": 2.966375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111948.333333, "fair_value_reference": 36970.226462, "structural_low": 60655.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007381, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000349, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.540736, "worst_return": -0.130523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025271, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01363, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.401576, "worst_return": -0.256136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050272, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157754, "worst_return": -0.153335, "sufficient": 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95495.0, "volume": 268194, "typical_volume": 90407.55, "trend": 110909.666667, "fair_value": 36529.09775, "relative_strength": 10.438434, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.649399, "energy": 28.369063, "activity_lines": [ 111855.333333, 138128.090909, 141474.833333, 129042.709677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84125.0, "volume": 135698, "typical_volume": 92054.3, "trend": 111948.333333, "fair_value": 36970.226462, "relative_strength": 1.582643, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.430891, "energy": 41.332595, "activity_lines": [ 98705.0, 125211.0, 137092.904762, 127314.666667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }