{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa01e423-737f-4127-9699-d3a90c841159", "symbol": "SAPP34", "name": "SAP SE", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.196, "architecture_energy": 20.365, "architecture_maturity": 30.956, "architecture_confidence": 44.942, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.49, "rotation_up": 42.62, "upward_expansion": 33.2, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 19.77, "downward_expansion": 46.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.657476, 62.135986, 61.779321, 63.013149 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 70.720001, "trend_reference": 66.360822, "distance_from_trend": 0.065689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.911148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.480616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055664, "excess_performance": 0.001384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114261, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.30221, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055664, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.804554, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14112, "relative_activity": 2.691358, "balance": 4.804554, "dry_up": 1.51899, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073231, "annualized_volatility": 0.440542, "from_high_reference": -0.369509, "from_low_reference": 0.338362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.360822, "fair_value_reference": 81.911148, "structural_low": 52.840714, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037366, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032988, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.144366, "worst_return": -0.195643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.118746, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309539, "worst_return": -0.33586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.131968, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.242953, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.448082, "worst_return": -0.374672, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.099998, "volume": 1568, "typical_volume": 5148.5, "trend": 69.089992, "fair_value": 81.520344, "relative_strength": -35.367317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.713238, "energy": 48.85538, "activity_lines": [ 58.283142, 59.599311, 60.748871, 63.528003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.570713, "volume": 826, "typical_volume": 3810.1, "trend": 67.83235, "fair_value": 81.609856, "relative_strength": -33.715007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.16301, "energy": 41.934625, "activity_lines": [ 58.409142, 59.21048, 60.390711, 62.84934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.709999, "volume": 15353, "typical_volume": 4550.45, "trend": 67.05861, "fair_value": 81.751099, "relative_strength": -24.867158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.722433, "energy": 13.672188, "activity_lines": [ 61.191142, 60.340467, 60.884807, 62.77693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.720001, "volume": 14112, "typical_volume": 5243.45, "trend": 66.360822, "fair_value": 81.911148, "relative_strength": -16.480616, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.19553, "energy": 20.365491, "activity_lines": [ 64.657476, 62.135986, 61.779321, 63.013149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }