{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa05f54e-fba2-4c4b-a3b5-9693bba9f1df", "symbol": "EXSA", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE) EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.516, "architecture_energy": 75.543, "architecture_maturity": 39.28, "architecture_confidence": 88.819, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 67.7, "upward_expansion": 90.71, "deceleration": 47.84, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 15.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.874667, 64.428248, 63.285185, 62.308827 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 65.919998, "trend_reference": 61.301448, "distance_from_trend": 0.075342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.488961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280274, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.561538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093027, "excess_performance": 0.028388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035615, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.895571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 882479, "relative_activity": 0.923131, "balance": 1.895571, "dry_up": 1.213701, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019275, "annualized_volatility": 0.150949, "from_high_reference": -0.004681, "from_low_reference": 0.247074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.301448, "fair_value_reference": 51.488961, "structural_low": 54.779171, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008589, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": 0.002309, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.07431, "worst_return": -0.057081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024842, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.007592, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.076861, "worst_return": -0.040224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.07102, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.008883, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.152425, "worst_return": -0.126339, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.50861, "energy": 79.988367, "activity_lines": [ 63.976481, 63.251943, 61.954642, 61.289326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.959999, "volume": 1411100, "typical_volume": 1091337.35, "trend": 60.64731, "fair_value": 51.05717, "relative_strength": 7.33036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.832876, "energy": 77.257113, "activity_lines": [ 64.054667, 63.503895, 62.243765, 61.517327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.230003, "volume": 1034468, "typical_volume": 1030626.5, "trend": 60.874018, "fair_value": 51.191987, "relative_strength": 6.333042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.008188, "energy": 73.757218, "activity_lines": [ 64.160668, 63.744283, 62.549394, 61.748469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.730003, "volume": 1312968, "typical_volume": 960571.15, "trend": 61.090427, "fair_value": 51.336631, "relative_strength": 4.681748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.11428, "energy": 59.479894, "activity_lines": [ 64.366002, 64.001207, 62.875846, 61.997242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.919998, "volume": 882479, "typical_volume": 955963.1, "trend": 61.301448, "fair_value": 51.488961, "relative_strength": 3.561538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.515765, "energy": 75.54348, "activity_lines": [ 64.874667, 64.428248, 63.285185, 62.308827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }