{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa071655-ee11-4f78-963e-e5f60cd5246c", "symbol": "ALF", "name": "Centurion Acquisition Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.308, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.304, "architecture_energy": 12.036, "architecture_maturity": 26.342, "architecture_confidence": 68.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.21, "rotation_up": 26.36, "upward_expansion": 51.39, "deceleration": 79.05, "rotation_down": 34.3, "downward_expansion": 27.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.822667, 10.839327, 10.839395, 10.825963 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.81, "trend_reference": 10.800033, "distance_from_trend": 0.000923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.460111, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03345, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.897775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006518, "excess_performance": -0.180936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03345, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035972, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006518, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1349, "relative_activity": 0.005049, "balance": 0.526729, "dry_up": 0.015976, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00607, "annualized_volatility": 0.027526, "from_high_reference": -0.016379, "from_low_reference": 0.03445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.800033, "fair_value_reference": 10.460111, "structural_low": 10.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 10.0, "volume": 502344, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"fair_value": 10.445606, "relative_strength": -12.809438, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.740656, "energy": 44.762917, "activity_lines": [ 10.867467, 10.856309, 10.838129, 10.814725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.88, "volume": 1645, "typical_volume": 297568.1, "trend": 10.783367, "fair_value": 10.449823, "relative_strength": -8.786044, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.517118, "energy": 55.049806, "activity_lines": [ 10.878733, 10.861564, 10.843838, 10.821497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.88, "volume": 159, "typical_volume": 286030.95, "trend": 10.791867, "fair_value": 10.45396, "relative_strength": -7.02238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.655564, "energy": 55.682058, "activity_lines": [ 10.883333, 10.865909, 10.849024, 10.827731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.75, "volume": 13922, "typical_volume": 274145.85, "trend": 10.795533, "fair_value": 10.456779, "relative_strength": -8.282685, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.908723, "energy": 8.841861, "activity_lines": [ 10.838667, 10.845891, 10.841305, 10.82503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.81, "volume": 1349, "typical_volume": 267196.75, "trend": 10.800033, "fair_value": 10.460111, "relative_strength": -11.897775, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.304401, "energy": 12.035944, "activity_lines": [ 10.822667, 10.839327, 10.839395, 10.825963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }