{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa08ed73-6367-4b56-88c7-dd958e622518", "symbol": "DLEKG", "name": "Delek Group Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.734, "architecture_energy": 32.191, "architecture_maturity": 56.015, "architecture_confidence": 84.404, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.89, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 16.97, "deceleration": 46.16, "rotation_down": 31.48, "downward_expansion": 62.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.355333, 79.817455, 83.668847, 87.782552 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 79.88, "trend_reference": 90.687652, "distance_from_trend": -0.119174, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.967436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.638797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088961, "excess_performance": -0.117862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2310898, "relative_activity": 1.234529, "balance": 0.478344, "dry_up": 1.102768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084086, "annualized_volatility": 0.501309, "from_high_reference": -0.324782, "from_low_reference": 0.278957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.687652, "fair_value_reference": 57.967436, "structural_low": 74.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013096, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013706, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.136205, "worst_return": -0.068217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.087427, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081614, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.104256, "worst_return": 0.061385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.193805, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200798, "worst_return": 0.186813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 90.877626, "fair_value": 56.937673, "relative_strength": -18.122257, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.923708, "energy": 81.751528, "activity_lines": [ 77.815333, 81.124847, 87.980963, 90.379883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.44, "volume": 2218490, "typical_volume": 2037780.0, "trend": 90.754535, "fair_value": 57.196203, "relative_strength": -16.123804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.913923, "energy": 72.200949, "activity_lines": [ 77.717333, 80.055393, 86.531792, 89.577456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.45, "volume": 2024905, "typical_volume": 1971077.75, "trend": 90.816233, "fair_value": 57.488187, "relative_strength": -11.945009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.287488, "energy": 44.685937, "activity_lines": [ 80.01, 80.325313, 85.724957, 89.170712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.12, "volume": 1702737, "typical_volume": 1901066.1, "trend": 90.700242, "fair_value": 57.737664, "relative_strength": -14.209998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.71111, "energy": 38.452872, "activity_lines": [ 80.376, 79.957145, 84.644877, 88.480632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.88, "volume": 2310898, "typical_volume": 1871887.0, "trend": 90.687652, "fair_value": 57.967436, "relative_strength": -14.638797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.734246, "energy": 32.190878, "activity_lines": [ 80.355333, 79.817455, 83.668847, 87.782552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }