{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa0c8d72-58c6-4c01-9674-2cc6c801f80f", "symbol": "01004T", "name": "Fubon No.2 Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.782, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.112, "architecture_energy": 59.292, "architecture_maturity": 36.745, "architecture_confidence": 93.026, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.88, "rotation_up": 21.07, "upward_expansion": 9.72, "deceleration": 59.99, "rotation_down": 66.55, "downward_expansion": 87.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.242667, 10.287636, 10.417932, 10.519655 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.21, "trend_reference": 10.615487, "distance_from_trend": -0.038198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.349593, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.153902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.049082, "excess_performance": -0.428394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038198, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.109371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 326000, "relative_activity": 0.903534, "balance": 0.109371, "dry_up": 1.246516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015219, "annualized_volatility": 0.069883, "from_high_reference": -0.086618, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.615487, "fair_value_reference": 11.349593, "structural_low": 10.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.00707, "positive_rate": 0.289474, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.03538, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.022995, "worst_return": -0.025016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.017062, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.089036, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.029466, "worst_return": -0.070856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032855, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.117348, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.010587, "worst_return": -0.072116, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.339702, "energy": 86.440657, "activity_lines": [ 10.344, 10.402727, 10.562641, 10.618064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.29, "volume": 322000, "typical_volume": 343205.65, "trend": 10.636104, "fair_value": 11.396575, "relative_strength": -30.948343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.530582, "energy": 82.567553, "activity_lines": [ 10.316667, 10.368182, 10.526144, 10.595195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.28, "volume": 617000, "typical_volume": 332505.65, "trend": 10.6261, "fair_value": 11.38069, "relative_strength": -31.66318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.72444, "energy": 80.049415, "activity_lines": [ 10.295333, 10.343636, 10.491057, 10.572221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.22, "volume": 534000, "typical_volume": 349755.65, "trend": 10.618673, "fair_value": 11.364652, "relative_strength": -30.28945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.972937, "energy": 79.568354, "activity_lines": [ 10.264667, 10.314, 10.453506, 10.546021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.21, "volume": 326000, "typical_volume": 360805.65, "trend": 10.615487, "fair_value": 11.349593, "relative_strength": -31.153902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.112359, "energy": 59.29177, "activity_lines": [ 10.242667, 10.287636, 10.417932, 10.519655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }