{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa1276ec-49f8-4edd-bad0-db5c0c01133f", "symbol": "GOVX", "name": "GeoVax Labs Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.14, "architecture_energy": 56.091, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.402, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.61, "rotation_up": 12.45, "upward_expansion": 10.28, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 70.76, "downward_expansion": 88.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.793087, 0.96216, 1.25459, 1.368019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.7699, "trend_reference": 1.616717, "distance_from_trend": -0.523788, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.145386, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -89.691745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.711648, "excess_performance": -0.899102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.523788, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.589865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985781, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.896917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.711648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.604451, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765883, "relative_activity": 0.047499, "balance": 8.604451, "dry_up": 0.068656, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.854676, "annualized_volatility": 2.128826, "from_high_reference": -0.961505, "from_low_reference": 0.205229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.616717, "fair_value_reference": 54.145386, "structural_low": 0.6388, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.244898, "directional_follow_through": 0.755102, "median_excess_return": -0.109595, "regime_survival": 0.877551, "best_return": 2.759173, "worst_return": -0.509259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.276596, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.340431, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 3.316933, "worst_return": -0.802015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.527542, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.502621, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.443946, "worst_return": -0.845453, "sufficient": true }, 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0.9742, "volume": 2072440, "typical_volume": 16064341.15, "trend": 2.005307, "fair_value": 58.240291, "relative_strength": -88.46336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.258172, "energy": 46.901743, "activity_lines": [ 1.142733, 1.355491, 1.458852, 1.589368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7312, "volume": 922292, "typical_volume": 16092110.4, "trend": 1.878847, "fair_value": 56.829834, "relative_strength": -90.700895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.332367, "energy": 46.838222, "activity_lines": [ 0.986187, 1.201087, 1.386113, 1.507167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6812, "volume": 667468, "typical_volume": 16108490.45, "trend": 1.729053, "fair_value": 55.474105, "relative_strength": -90.899208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.930714, "energy": 52.31649, "activity_lines": [ 0.85356, 1.046662, 1.313654, 1.4299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7699, "volume": 765883, "typical_volume": 16124154.45, "trend": 1.616717, "fair_value": 54.145386, "relative_strength": -89.691745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.139648, "energy": 56.091172, "activity_lines": [ 0.793087, 0.96216, 1.25459, 1.368019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }