{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa1507ac-e648-4196-89e1-ee56c45c0dbe", "symbol": "S600", "name": "Invesco STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.718, "architecture_energy": 59.335, "architecture_maturity": 30.336, "architecture_confidence": 84.59, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 60.34, "upward_expansion": 81.94, "deceleration": 56.36, "rotation_down": 23.0, "downward_expansion": 8.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 14209.8, 14140.527273, 13954.419048, 13778.572043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14479.0, "trend_reference": 13597.0, "distance_from_trend": 0.064867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11318.664451, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.977504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078591, "excess_performance": 0.027355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019775, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078591, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10390, "relative_activity": 0.773681, "balance": 1.637381, "dry_up": 0.652137, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019323, "annualized_volatility": 0.152455, "from_high_reference": -0.004706, "from_low_reference": 0.230789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13597.0, "fair_value_reference": 11318.664451, "structural_low": 11922.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.010917, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003239, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.090066, "worst_return": -0.100143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014764, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001699, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.11748, "worst_return": -0.052129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07139, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000424, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.133497, "worst_return": -0.111337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 13728.5, "trend": 13556.033333, "fair_value": 11285.77663, "relative_strength": 0.171179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.395914, "energy": 45.574178, "activity_lines": [ 14080.0, 14054.472727, 13875.052381, 13719.025806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14479.0, "volume": 10390, "typical_volume": 13429.3, "trend": 13597.0, "fair_value": 11318.664451, "relative_strength": 1.977504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.717907, "energy": 59.334572, "activity_lines": [ 14209.8, 14140.527273, 13954.419048, 13778.572043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }