{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa179cce-2134-4e7d-abf2-eea4ffe81347", "symbol": "SYPR", "name": "Sypris Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.294, "architecture_energy": 74.752, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.16, "rotation_up": 15.48, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 38.12, "rotation_down": 69.21, "downward_expansion": 93.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.935333, 2.064182, 2.454095, 2.668559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.03, "trend_reference": 2.912667, "distance_from_trend": -0.303044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.072717, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020609, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.429454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.361635, "excess_performance": -0.549089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.303044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.637639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361635, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575388, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125186, "relative_activity": 0.301893, "balance": 0.575388, "dry_up": 0.508477, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208052, "annualized_volatility": 0.682975, "from_high_reference": -0.57173, "from_low_reference": 0.137255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.912667, "fair_value_reference": 2.072717, "structural_low": 1.785, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.020919, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.326923, "worst_return": -0.177914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.015544, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.571912, "worst_return": -0.157407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041168, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.262821, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097561, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.137293, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.296053, "worst_return": -0.2171, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.287611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08589, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160784, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 2.074063, "relative_strength": -36.728532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.857932, "energy": 80.469688, "activity_lines": [ 2.094, 2.349091, 2.721762, 2.864989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.9, "volume": 215384, "typical_volume": 432444.5, "trend": 2.945333, "fair_value": 2.073422, "relative_strength": -32.610428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.805076, "energy": 79.913584, "activity_lines": [ 1.995333, 2.228909, 2.62219, 2.796645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.86, "volume": 151372, "typical_volume": 423915.8, "trend": 2.93, "fair_value": 2.072974, "relative_strength": -34.162489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.287606, "energy": 79.712853, "activity_lines": [ 1.919333, 2.121455, 2.527, 2.726624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.03, "volume": 125186, "typical_volume": 414669.45, "trend": 2.912667, "fair_value": 2.072717, "relative_strength": -31.429454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.294398, "energy": 74.751755, "activity_lines": [ 1.935333, 2.064182, 2.454095, 2.668559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }