{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa194493-bb6b-4a1e-ad1a-64755fc84872", "symbol": "RS2U", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Russell 2000", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.729, "architecture_energy": 51.635, "architecture_maturity": 64.641, "architecture_confidence": 52.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.35, "rotation_up": 43.88, "upward_expansion": 67.56, "deceleration": 68.18, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 19.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 446.256669, 446.477273, 439.32619, 428.19543 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 455.399994, "trend_reference": 415.695834, "distance_from_trend": 0.095513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 335.405289, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.35776, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.657096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146526, "excess_performance": 0.09529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.35776, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029196, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066571, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.374737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2666, "relative_activity": 0.896421, "balance": 0.374737, "dry_up": 1.413729, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023322, "annualized_volatility": 0.152344, "from_high_reference": -0.005112, "from_low_reference": 0.377495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 415.695834, "fair_value_reference": 335.405289, "structural_low": 359.850006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.001835, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020664, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.130258, "worst_return": -0.080654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024752, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.015959, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.212076, "worst_return": -0.187014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090286, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.063619, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.225296, "worst_return": -0.23061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003166, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.375965, "energy": 83.435247, "activity_lines": [ 448.936664, 443.704544, 429.469165, 419.237043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 443.450012, "volume": 4103, "typical_volume": 3203.8, "trend": 409.349168, "fair_value": 332.333494, "relative_strength": 7.591173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.534875, "energy": 76.679631, "activity_lines": [ 447.330003, 444.579092, 432.164286, 421.57656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 443.399994, "volume": 4342, "typical_volume": 2949.6, "trend": 411.450834, "fair_value": 333.320994, "relative_strength": 5.979413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.009756, "energy": 58.238046, "activity_lines": [ 445.753335, 445.147272, 434.623928, 423.773387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 438.200012, "volume": 5707, "typical_volume": 3092.1, "trend": 413.607501, "fair_value": 334.285097, "relative_strength": 3.215225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.035977, "energy": 44.694385, "activity_lines": [ 442.660006, 444.326365, 436.317858, 425.499141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 455.399994, "volume": 2666, "typical_volume": 2974.05, "trend": 415.695834, "fair_value": 335.405289, "relative_strength": 6.657096, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.72901, "energy": 51.635375, "activity_lines": [ 446.256669, 446.477273, 439.32619, 428.19543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }