{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa27ae9e-52ce-45b7-abbf-1ff9636709ff", "symbol": "D01", "name": "DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.634, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.59, "architecture_energy": 30.042, "architecture_maturity": 47.971, "architecture_confidence": 62.019, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.74, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 63.57, "rotation_down": 39.07, "downward_expansion": 65.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.746, 3.713818, 3.835286, 3.938 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.84, "trend_reference": 4.023784, "distance_from_trend": -0.045674, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.495592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.538713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.127717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064822, "excess_performance": -0.219657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045674, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.538713, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6836800, "relative_activity": 1.153291, "balance": 0.755165, "dry_up": 1.385655, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065104, "annualized_volatility": 0.295046, "from_high_reference": -0.185115, "from_low_reference": 0.308041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.023784, "fair_value_reference": 2.495592, "structural_low": 3.31, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.017391, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.016424, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.223789, "worst_return": -0.172206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.051991, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.330544, "worst_return": -0.2493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003538, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.288928, "worst_return": -0.280926, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 3.656, 3.733273, 3.917064, 3.993804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.43, "volume": 7155800, "typical_volume": 6190795.0, "trend": 4.02222, "fair_value": 2.471481, "relative_strength": -21.83, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.589968, "energy": 80.136166, "activity_lines": [ 3.577333, 3.659455, 3.856692, 3.954647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.95, "volume": 14316200, "typical_volume": 6171210.0, "trend": 4.025813, "fair_value": 2.484088, "relative_strength": -10.628449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.955096, "energy": 41.261554, "activity_lines": [ 3.688667, 3.694182, 3.849714, 3.949988 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.84, "volume": 6836800, "typical_volume": 5928080.0, "trend": 4.023784, "fair_value": 2.495592, "relative_strength": -14.127717, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.589728, "energy": 30.042063, "activity_lines": [ 3.746, 3.713818, 3.835286, 3.938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }