{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa2cdea7-697b-4e94-8035-53918e959c28", "symbol": "NGA2L", "name": "SG ETC Daily Long +2X Natural Gas Future", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.17, "architecture_energy": 85.012, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.691, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.41, "rotation_up": 8.7, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 84.13, "downward_expansion": 97.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.108827, 0.120875, 0.128615, 0.137345 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0994, "trend_reference": 0.15463, "distance_from_trend": -0.357175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.592498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.832236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.525354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.555853, "excess_performance": -0.726745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.357175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.832236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.515254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.555853, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577116, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239895, "relative_activity": 0.972332, "balance": 0.577116, "dry_up": 0.97638, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168782, "annualized_volatility": 0.752337, "from_high_reference": -0.70284, "from_low_reference": 0.01222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.15463, "fair_value_reference": 0.592498, "structural_low": 0.0982, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.012126, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.018323, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.676404, "worst_return": -0.391756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094549, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.152358, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.22571, "worst_return": -0.589886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.348858, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.409826, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.005683, "worst_return": -0.600883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -35.589739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.402579, "energy": 23.563044, "activity_lines": [ 0.146913, 0.141024, 0.143124, 0.155215 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.1568, "volume": 45000, "typical_volume": 337541.4, "trend": 0.168697, "fair_value": 0.672688, "relative_strength": -28.785645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.952296, "energy": 14.781671, "activity_lines": [ 0.150547, 0.144936, 0.143563, 0.154274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.1428, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 319216.2, "trend": 0.16273, "fair_value": 0.658511, "relative_strength": -35.823821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.603176, "energy": 12.922454, "activity_lines": [ 0.147913, 0.145778, 0.142987, 0.152603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.1178, "volume": 492400, "typical_volume": 333735.0, "trend": 0.160707, "fair_value": 0.645077, "relative_strength": -45.67178, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.079332, "energy": 34.283873, "activity_lines": [ 0.1379, 0.141555, 0.140211, 0.149704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1136, "volume": 167900, "typical_volume": 325425.35, "trend": 0.159067, "fair_value": 0.630933, "relative_strength": -45.482279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.025107, "energy": 61.691902, "activity_lines": [ 0.128727, 0.136538, 0.137261, 0.146665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.124, "volume": 185000, "typical_volume": 269755.55, "trend": 0.157627, "fair_value": 0.618071, "relative_strength": -39.403955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.51444, "energy": 68.754516, "activity_lines": [ 0.12468, 0.133616, 0.135471, 0.144403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1046, "volume": 370780, "typical_volume": 245353.55, "trend": 0.155767, "fair_value": 0.606425, "relative_strength": -48.332052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.473936, "energy": 81.825475, "activity_lines": [ 0.11588, 0.127462, 0.132099, 0.140982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0994, "volume": 239895, "typical_volume": 246721.3, "trend": 0.15463, "fair_value": 0.592498, "relative_strength": -51.525354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.169647, "energy": 85.012395, "activity_lines": [ 0.108827, 0.120875, 0.128615, 0.137345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }