{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa35278e-e6db-41d9-80c5-c5504b1c6f8a", "symbol": "CIFR", "name": "Cipher Digital Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 79.981, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.287, "architecture_energy": 10.817, "architecture_maturity": 35.697, "architecture_confidence": 76.112, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.65, "rotation_up": 20.71, "upward_expansion": 49.22, "deceleration": 81.94, "rotation_down": 36.48, "downward_expansion": 27.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 350.270662, 373.01509, 375.016144, 353.533915 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 293.119995, "trend_reference": 328.305668, "distance_from_trend": -0.107174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.874486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.024533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153153, "excess_performance": 0.20782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527665, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.597169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.47272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.083093, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17912, "relative_activity": 1.969336, "balance": 2.083093, "dry_up": 1.948612, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.296027, "annualized_volatility": 1.007766, "from_high_reference": -0.430835, "from_low_reference": 2.304622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 328.305668, "fair_value_reference": 191.874486, "structural_low": 212.539993, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04835, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017751, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160089, "worst_return": -0.072598, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.188266, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193136, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261941, "worst_return": 0.114591, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.406548, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.41634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406548, "worst_return": 0.406548, 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 105.5, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 104.5, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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395.23999, "volume": 10445, "typical_volume": 8285.3, "trend": 328.472001, "fair_value": 190.91934, "relative_strength": 30.983113, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.962627, "energy": 18.382916, "activity_lines": [ 375.972664, 392.754909, 380.856097, 355.81469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 293.119995, "volume": 17912, "typical_volume": 9095.45, "trend": 328.305668, "fair_value": 191.874486, "relative_strength": -4.024533, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.287308, "energy": 10.816816, "activity_lines": [ 350.270662, 373.01509, 375.016144, 353.533915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }