{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa36470c-229d-476e-ad0e-47ad1d550477", "symbol": "LOWE", "name": "Lowe's Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.0, "architecture_energy": 48.694, "architecture_maturity": 38.305, "architecture_confidence": 92.654, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.11, "rotation_up": 19.68, "upward_expansion": 6.79, "deceleration": 54.83, "rotation_down": 58.49, "downward_expansion": 80.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 185.671942, 187.852582, 190.026265, 194.929463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 191.100006, "trend_reference": 203.757461, "distance_from_trend": -0.06212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 206.219847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.141849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18343, "excess_performance": -0.357677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18343, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.502415, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.502415, "dry_up": 1.428571, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038897, "annualized_volatility": 0.243495, "from_high_reference": -0.213667, "from_low_reference": 0.083026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 203.757461, "fair_value_reference": 206.219847, "structural_low": 176.449997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01911, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.003401, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.14735, "worst_return": -0.078684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103284, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.100008, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160296, "worst_return": -0.092116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080121, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151451, "worst_return": 0.038792, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.721373, "energy": 39.467099, "activity_lines": [ 190.143973, 189.698005, 193.005001, 198.952645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 182.050003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.35, "trend": 205.672627, "fair_value": 206.292685, "relative_strength": -27.579083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.790843, "energy": 53.062056, "activity_lines": [ 186.936231, 188.470439, 191.599481, 197.385239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 181.350006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.35, "trend": 204.841917, "fair_value": 206.226827, "relative_strength": -27.341999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.334311, "energy": 62.110981, "activity_lines": [ 184.237994, 187.244692, 190.284602, 195.816038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.100006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.2, "trend": 203.757461, "fair_value": 206.219847, "relative_strength": -25.141849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.99978, "energy": 48.694023, "activity_lines": [ 185.671942, 187.852582, 190.026265, 194.929463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }