{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa364b9b-40fb-4688-ba10-8d8815f767ec", "symbol": "QDC", "name": "Quantum D C Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.701, "architecture_energy": 67.879, "architecture_maturity": 64.786, "architecture_confidence": 87.421, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 19.64, "upward_expansion": 12.66, "deceleration": 45.01, "rotation_down": 67.42, "downward_expansion": 88.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.066667, 0.071818, 0.090667, 0.099226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.106667, "distance_from_trend": -0.4375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.576035, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.89584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.366335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.525658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.4375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.571963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.89584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.763663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 603500, "relative_activity": 0.183626, "balance": 1.193901, "dry_up": 0.246868, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.294872, "annualized_volatility": 1.47674, "from_high_reference": -0.964912, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.106667, "fair_value_reference": 0.576035, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.186047, "directional_follow_through": 0.604651, "median_excess_return": -0.071461, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 1.500013, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.183041, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.204471, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.375001, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.362821, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.017279, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333334, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.533334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.391304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.416668, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.44, 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-71.392276, "energy": 81.44125, "activity_lines": [ 0.072667, 0.086182, 0.103476, 0.108452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 455600, "typical_volume": 6123610.0, "trend": 0.114, "fair_value": 0.593728, "relative_strength": -73.582559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.962102, "energy": 77.461385, "activity_lines": [ 0.070667, 0.080909, 0.099333, 0.105226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 557300, "typical_volume": 4186440.0, "trend": 0.109, "fair_value": 0.584914, "relative_strength": -72.954691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.859567, "energy": 66.970953, "activity_lines": [ 0.07, 0.076727, 0.095238, 0.102387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 603500, "typical_volume": 3286580.0, "trend": 0.106667, "fair_value": 0.576035, "relative_strength": -76.366335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.701375, "energy": 67.879253, "activity_lines": [ 0.066667, 0.071818, 0.090667, 0.099226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }